Perhaps the solution to these problems is not so difficult after all......
Not necessarily. In fact, Historically ( which will make our Historian happy ! ) Franco offered to join theby Huszar666 » 01 Jun 2022 10:52
4, to get Spain into the war, you would need a few clearly defined pre-requisites:
a, secure coal supply. Easiest, THAT Germany could have done without (much) of a problem
b, secure food supply. Not so easy, OTL it was done by plundering France and American imports.
c, secure oil supply. Very hard. The most convinient source would be... Iraq. For that, Germany
would have to take the Middle East (technically possible).
d, the Axis clearly on their way to win the war.
Spain would only enter the war, if ALL of points a-d were completed (in my ATL, around late 1941)
Axis, making contact with the German Government in Berlin on June 16th, 1940, and again on June 18th.
Franco wanted some significant concessions, which Hitler was unwilling to grant. However, as a very
wise man once said, ' LIfe is a Negotiation '. If Hitler were to supply Coal from the Ruhr, and some
Oil from Rumania, as well as forgiving the Spanish War Debt to Germany ( and get Mussolini to forgive
the debt to Italy ), as well as promising German assistance in helping Spain re-take Gibralter, it might
be enough to bring El Caudillo into the Axis Bullpen. And, while Spain might not be a Cy Young winner,
it was certainly a journeyman reliever, able to provide a few innings of good pitches.
by Huszar666 » 01 Jun 2022 10:52
5, to get Turkey into the war, you would need:
a, German-Italian troops in the Middle East
b, the axis clearly in their way to win the war.
In my rather conservative OTL that would be in late summer 1942 (and with Spain AND Turkey
in the war, that would also mean an active participation of Vichy-France)
Not Necessarily..... After The Great War, the Turks were VERY pissed off at having their Ottoman pulled
out from under them. A German promise to restore the Ottoman Empire, along with some parts of the
Southern USSR ( like, for example, those parts that were inhabited by ethnic Moslem majorities, ) might
be enough to get the Turks into the war after the start of Barbarrossa. A Turkish Army of about 100,000,
mostly infantry with some field artillery, cavalry, and some limited air support would certainly give
Stalin a pain in his Baku Region....... In return for their help, Turkey might end up with Syria, Lebanon,
Jordan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and possibly Iran as well.
#15 by Richard Anderson » 02 Jun 2022 13:44
It's simple. TMP was just going to violate the French Armistice and put the 1+ million
French PW into forced labor. No Problem.
It's amazing how little History some people remember..... I call the attention of the Forum to the
events of July 3rd through the 7th, 1940. When the British Navy, without cause or provocation, cold
bloodedly attacked the French Navy at Mers-el-Kebir, sinking a battleship and slaughtering nearly 1300
As a result of this gruesome example of Churchill's honor and loyalty,
" ......The British Empire and the French Republic, linked together in their cause and
in their need, will defend to the death their native soil, aiding each other like good comrades
to the utmost of their strength......"
the New French Government, under Petain, formally severed all relations with Britain on July 7th,
and handed over all British personnel then interned in France to the Germans.
In fact, it would have taken only a gentle push on the part of Berlin to have brought France into
the Axis on that date. The Massacre at Mers-el-Kebir is STILL an open wound with the people of
France. I can see an Aged but Angry Petain, who was a Rightist, joining with the Axis against a
Perfidious Albion to redeem the Honor of France in the Tradition of the Blessed St. Joan and
the Glorious Emperor Napolean !
This would mean that ALL of the French industrial complex, and the entire remaining French
Army and Air Force would join the Axis. And, the French industry was nothing to be sneezed
at. Michelin, Hispano Suiza, Dewoitine, Renault.... the list goes on - big factories, lots
of machine tools, ALL of which could go right back into production of French War equipment
that could be adapted to serve as second line equipment for the Heer -
And, if Vichy France had entered the Axis, along with Spain, it would have been a simple process
for the combined Italian Fleet and the remnants of the French Fleet ( three repaired battleships
and some cruisers and destroyers ), along with the Spanish Army, and some air units from Italy,
to overwhelm the garrison at Gibralter, and seal off the Western end of the Med. If Mussolini
then moves his fleet to the western side of Italy, there might be no Taranto..... And Spanish
naval bases re-supplying U-boats for the Atlantic would mean that they would have safe havens
out of range of the RAF bomber command, and be able to transit into and out of the Med out of
range of Coastal Command.
A Siege of Malta would follow, and it is possible that by the end of 1940, the Western Mediterranean
might be well on the way to becoming Mare Romanum....
#10 by Richard Anderson » 01 Jun 2022 13:04
Yes, only prescience is required.
Prescience is NOT normally part of the Skill Set for the average Historian - they spend their entire
lives looking Backwards at the Past, not looking Forward into the Future.....
In the Modern Classic Movie, Margin Call, Jeremy Irons portrays John Tuld , the CEO of a major Wall
Street Investment Bank that is heavily over-leveraged with Mortgage Backed Securities, right before
the Wall Street Meltdown of 2007-2008. There is a late night meeting with the Senior Partners of the
Firm, in which a Junior Analyst, Peter Sullivan, informs the Corporate Management that the entire
Real Estate Market is about to crater, and that this would wipe out the entire Firm. ( This is exactly
what happened to Lehman Brothers.... )
The following exchange takes place :
John Tuld: So, what you're telling me, is that the Music is about to stop, and we're going
to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history
of ........ Capitalism.
Peter Sullivan: Sir, I not sure that I would put it that way, but let me clarify using your
analogy. What this model shows is the Music, so to speak, just slowing. If the Music were to
stop, as you put it, then this model wouldn't even be close to that scenario. It would be
John Tuld: Let me tell you something, Mr. Sullivan. Do you care to know why I'm in
this chair with you all? I mean, why I earn the big bucks ?
Peter Sullivan: Yes.
John Tuld: I'm here for one reason and one reason alone. I'm here to guess what the Music
might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more. And standing here
tonight, I'm afraid that I.... don't....... hear......a.....thing..... Just....... Silence.............
And John Tuld then gives orders for his Firm to Liquidate ALL of their holdings in Mortgage
Backed Securities, losing BILLIONS of dollars in a single day. And he saves his Bank.
This is called LEADERSHIP. Leaders have Vision, Insight, and Prescience. At least, Successful
Leaders do. People who lack those qualities end up as Historians......
More than four decades ago, while working as a Swing Shift Engineer, I made a decision to shut
down a piece of process equipment used on the production line I was responsible for sustaining.
As a result, a significant amount of manufacturing output was lost, but a subsequent examination
of the piece of equipment showed that it was, in fact, malfunctioning, and that any product that
would have been processed through this piece of equipment would have been reduced to scrap.
In a rather tense meeting the following day, I was forced to defend my position - a defense made
easier by the verbal report by the Line Maintenance Manager as to what his technicians had
discovered about the condition of the piece of equipment that I had shut down.
Attending the Meeting were the V.P. of Operations, the Fab Manager, the Engineering Manager,
the Production Manager, three Engineering Section Heads ( including my boss ) two Production
Supervisors, and the Line Maintenance Manager. And ...... ME.
I was being closely questioned by the Production Manager as to the reasons for my shutting
down a major portion of HIS Production Line, and I was forced to confess that I had not a
shred of test data or hard evidence that the system had been malfunctioning, but that I
had shut down the system based on my experience and intuition that it was malfunctioning.
The Production Manager jumped on this, and asked me, " So you shut us down last night
based on your INTUITION ? "
The Conference Room was absolutely silent. You could hear a pin drop. And then, I
" Intuition ... is a series of Logical Deductions and Decisions, using Sub-Conscious Reasoning,
based on Knowledge and Information that a person is not aware they possessed. "
The room remained silent - and then the V.P. of Operations leaned forward, and said, " Mr.....
Ward ? Could you please write that down for me ? "
I told him, " Yes, Certainly " I tore out the last page of my notebook, wrote it down, and handed
it down the table to him. He folded up the piece of paper, grinned at us all, said, " Thank you.
I think we've got a handle on it now ! Let's all get back to work ! " And as we all left the
conference room, he pointed his finger at me, and said, " I'm gonna remember that ! "
Paul R. Ward