historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
How did you get your data for aircraft weight? Did you go through all the tables in the USSBS Aircraft Division Industry Report, look up the weight of each aircraft, and add them up? If so, that is very impressive. Thank you for your work.
German airframe + spare parts weight is given, on a monthly basis,
here. This is what I used for Germany. For the U.S., I used the official data found in the Official Munitions Production of the United States, found
here.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
If we compare Richard's labor figures with KDF's, I get the following chart:
WW2 Aircraft Productivity USA v GER.png
My numbers come out the same as KDF when using his employment data.
My employment data is the data found in the USSBS,
here. It is the number of workers employed in the airframe industry, including subcontractors. It is an apples-to-apples comparison.
The U.S. figures are also available in the source Richard mentioned,
here. See Table 10 on p. 22.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
Richard provides data for only a single point in time (mid-1943), so I interpolated the data in his side of the chart for 1942 and 1944 based on trends in employment in both countries (Germany increasing slightly each year, the US increasing drastically from 1942 to 1943 and then declining slightly in 1944).
The source linked to above has the complete time series (Table 1, p. 4). For the selected dates, it shows:
5/31/1942: 848,200
5/31/1943: 1,836,600
5/31/1944: 1,956,500
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
It's also interesting to note that Richard gives a figure of 625,000 U.S. "equipment" workers, and KDF's data suggest that Germany had a roughly equal amount of equipment workers.
This is incorrect. What the respective data shows is this:
In the 3rd quarter of 1943, Germany had 935,000 workers employed to produce 'Airframes, Aircraft engines and Aircraft equipment'. Of them, ~385,000 were assembling airframes, including subcontractors. The comparable U.S. figure for the same period was ~1,143,425 assembling airframes, again including subcontractors. A further ~819,025 U.S. workers were employed in the engines, propellers and parts suppliers sectors, again including subcontractors. It is unclear whether that category matches the balance of ~550,000 German workers working on 'Aircraft engines' and 'Aircraft equipment'.
One would tend to assume that the U.S. category is narrower, given the smaller % of the overall workforce it represents. Notably, the U.S. report describes parts suppliers as being 'composed of specialists [...] devoting their attention to such products as instruments, turbo-superchargers, generators, and the like'. Nowhere are aircraft weapons mentioned. Thus, if the German figure of 935,000 includes weapons production, whereas the U.S. figure of ~1,962,450 doesn't, then comparing these two datasets will lead to erroneous conclusions.
For the time being, the only sector where we have a clear idea of what we are comparing is the airframes industry, including subcontractors for both countries. And here it shows:
5/31/1941: 291,000 German / 203,100 American workers = 143%
5/31/1942: 340,000 German / 510,200 American workers = 67%
5/31/1943: 373,000 German / 1,084,200 American workers = 34%
5/31/1944: 460,000 German / 1,063,400 American workers = 43%
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
In any event, both KDF's and Richard's data show that U.S. productivity far exceeded that of Germany.
It depends on your definition of 'far exceeded'. Personally, it is not at all the conclusion I reach.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
When we take equipment workers into account (in Richard's data), the U.S. productivity advantage is significantly higher.
It would be a mistake to do so, because unlike with airframe workers and subcontractors, we don't know what we are comparing.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
Moreover, using either data set, the productivity gap widened significantly in 1944.
The gap starts widening in the 2nd half of 1943. It coincides with the beginning of strategic air attacks on the German aircraft industry. Barring the last months of the war, the gap is in fact the widest in February 1944.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
The USSBS report (p. 146) states that the decline in German output due to air raids in 1944 can be estimated at 18%. I've added a fourth row ("No Air Raids") under each set of data to show what German output and productivity would have been without air raids, according to the USSBS.
I am curious how the USSBS arrived at that conclusion. Besides, plant dispersal also had adverse effects on productivity - perhaps more than through bombing directly.
historygeek2021 wrote: ↑10 Jul 2021 20:36
The other big factor is that U.S. productivity soared in 1944 relative to 1943. German productivity rose each year, but not nearly as fast as U.S. productivity.
In fact, German productivity didn't increase at all in 1942. It increased very quickly in the first half of 1943, at a rate similar to the U.S. It then collapsed in the second half of the year, in the context of
Pointblank, to bounce back only in the spring of 1944 under Saur's
Fighter Staff.