Or; what I was driving at all along
By August, this is the situation that this Plan aims to create;
The red cross-hatched areas are what Italy has gone way out on a limb to occupy. The closing of the Red Sea is of course the big item, but having an army more than halfway across Egypt is also a major problem and sure to be noticed in London.
Keep in mind that there are no Germans involved
in the Med., there are also no Italian Air Force unit involved in the Battle of Britain.
There are a handful of Germans arriving at Jubba, just above Uganda, one of the most densely populated and lucrative Colonies in Africa. For propaganda purposes we can call them a Brigade, who's to know?
But, south of the Rivera, that's all there are.
Now, consider this; The Battle of Britiain is at it's height. Predictably, the Germans are putting tremendous pressure on the UK to back out of the war. That is Germany's war aim at this point; get a peace deal with Britian.... but they are being stubborn, and this is something the Plan did not anticipate. How could it?
However, it did set up a very nice opportunity for a sweet deal for Italy;
Look at the map, that is a bad situation for Britain; they have nothing to send from the Home Isles while the B.O.B. is raging. South Africa ended up sending obsolete Ju-86s that had been sold to them as Airliners to work as bombers... because there was nothing else. A whole theater is being strategically isolated.
Yes, temporarily, but there is a window of opportunity here, thanks to the timing of all this.
Look at the map again, the cross-hatched areas are what I am thinking Rome's demands should be limited to.
Malta, of course. No matter if it is taken or not, this should be easily do-able and required for any reasonable settlement. Cyprus and the final disposition of Tunisa are negotiable, but Malta alone would be the one possession in the Mediterranean that must change hands, for the sake of prestige if nothing else.
The Balkans now fall within the Italian sphere of influence, not British. This is to be couched in terms of economic
affairs, not military.
Down south, British Somaliland is a given, its not worth much and the Brits tried to give it away to prevent the invasion of Ethiopia a few years back. Aden, yes, we want that, and Port Sudan, more on that in a moment.
Sudan, Kenya? If Italy offers to pull out aside from some very small gains and that annoying salient in N.E. Kenya, I think that will sweeten the pot a great deal, and occupied Egypt is just more sand that isn't any different from Libyan sand.
See that asterix up by Suez? That is the good
Italy's final term is 51% ownership of the Suez canal, as a war indemnity.
No doubt, they will try to knock us down to 50%, or less, but this is the kicker; Italy gets half the revenue, and a say in who does or does not get to use that canal.... and this would automatically be revoked in the event of another war between Italy and Britain
That's the hook; Italy looses much of what it gained if it ever tries a "stab in the back" again.
The end results of less than 100 days of war;
1) Italy's economic situation just took one hell of a turn for the better.
2) with 50% control of traffic in the north and a potential stranglehold on the south, the Red Sea just became an Italian Lake.
3) by not reaching for the stars Italy has shown itself to be the reasonable Fascist power, and in an excellent position to be a player in the International geo-political games to come.
4) by going along with this, Britian lost little that it can't afford, and now the Med & Red Sea shipping routes are open to them again just at it's greatest moment of crisis.
Italy can also assume the roll of buddy-boy with a strong right arm in the Balkans, and things will probably be a lot less exciting for Yugoslavia and Greece in the coming years.
But what of Germany?
Yeah, what about
The Tripartite Pact has not been sighed yet. Italy did not need Berlin's permission to enter this war, it needs no such permission to exit it. It is a good thing I had a strong army doing it's best to make a good showing agianst the French, and made no move to remove it from that area once the fighting was done there, yes?
As for German hostility.... why would they bother to get too huffy about it? Winter is coming, and in the Spring; Russia. Over all, they should be grateful that the plans Admiral Reader was fiddling with won't have to be implemented, and two additional Panzer Divisions are a better boost for Barbarossa than what Mussolini sent .... not to mention the logistic burden Africa posed.
Lastly, the UK has no Mediterranean theater to worry about an no long shipping delays regarding Oil and Troopships from India.
I really don't know what effect this will have, other than to put Sealion on the shelf permanently, but that was never going to work in any case.
It was not easy holding all that back this long, but I think the point is made.
Yes, Italy could not win a long war (what did you think, Italy was supposed to roll up the whole British Empire on it's own?
) but a limited war with limited objectives was very possible.
Need I remind anyone that Machiavelli was an Italian?
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