Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

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ljadw
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Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by ljadw » 24 Jul 2009 11:17

Not wanting to start WWIII :D ,I am imposing restraints on m.s. and am asking only one simple question(maybe a simple answer :D ):Whom am I to believe: Krivosheevev giving Sovjet molitary deaths as 8,668,400(AH Factbook) or Glantz giving as Sovjet military deaths 14,700000(Strom Clemson.edu.publications)?

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Piotr Kapuscinski
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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 24 Jul 2009 11:43

If it comes to Soviet military deaths during the Polish Campaign of 1939:

Comparison of Krivosheev’s figures from the old edition of his book (page 88 and forward):

http://documents.theblackvault.com/docu ... Losses.pdf

With these from the latest edition (published In 2001):

http://www.soldat.ru/doc/casualties/boo ... er4_8.html

http://www.soldat.ru/doc/casualties/boo ... er4_7.html

Is very interesting.

Krivosheev old edition – casualties in Poland for period 17 – 25 IX 1939:

KIA + DoW – 127 / 150 / 575 = 852
MIA – 20 / 18 / 106 = 144

Total – 147 / 168 / 681 = 996

WIA – 186 / 298 / 1518 = 2002
Sick – 26 / 11 / 344 = 381

Belarusian Front – casualties for period 17 – 25 IX 1939:

KIA + DoW – 32 / 63 / 221 = 316
MIA – 1 / - / 2 = 3

Total – 33 / 63 / 223 = 319

WIA – 48 / 95 / 499 = 642
Sick - - / - / - = -

Ukrainian Front – casualties for period 17 – 25 IX 1939:

KIA + DoW – 50 / 87 / 354 = 491
MIA – 19 / 18 / 104 = 141

Total – 69 / 105 / 458 = 632

WIA – 138 / 203 / 1119 = 1360
Sick – 26 / 11 / 344 = 381

Krivosheev 2001 – casualties (allegedly) for longer period: 17 – 30 IX 1939:

KIA – 109 / 141 / 723 = 973
DoW – 15 / 18 / 69 = 102
MIA – 6 / 16 / 280 = 302
DiA – 18 / 14 / 44 = 76
DoS - - / 2 / 20 = 22

Total – 148 / 191 / 1136 = 1475

WIA – 186 / 298 / 1518 = 2002
Sick – 26 / 11 / 344 = 381

Ukrainian Front – casualties for period 17 – 30 IX 1939:

KIA – 43 / 82 / 445 = 570
DoW – 6 / 10 / 42 = 58
MIA – 5 / 14 / 270 = 289
DiA – 7 / 8 / 27 = 42
DoS – - / 1 / 12 = 13

Total – 61 / 115 / 796 = 972

WIA – 138 / 203 / 1119 = 1360
Sick - 26 / 11 / 344 = 381

Belarusian Front – casualties for period 17 – 30 IX 1939:

KIA – 66 / 59 / 278 = 403
DoW – 9 / 8 / 27 = 44
MIA – 1 / 2 / 10 = 13
DiA – 11 / 6 / 17 = 34
DoS – - / 1 / 8 = 9

Total – 87 / 76 / 340 = 503

WIA – 48 / 95 / 499 = 642
Sick - - / - / - = -

What is the most interesting is:

1. Number of killed, died, MIA is 1,5 times bigger in the newest edition, but Krivosheev claims that the new data covers longer period (17 – 30 IX 1939) than the old one (17 - 25 IX 1939).

2. Number of WIA and sick is the same, despite the fact that numbers from the old edition refer to casualties suffered in period 17 – 25 IX and numbers from the latest edition allegedly refer to losses sustained in period 17 – 30 IX 1939 (so, anyway, casualties during the battle of Wytyczno on 01.10.1939 are still not included here).

3. Number of MIA elder and younger commanders of Ukrainian Front decreased in a very mysterious way, while simultaneously number of MIA privates of this Front increased to a very great extent (around 2,6 times).

4. Belarusian Front did not have any sick, but had got some died of sickness.

Also here an interesting discussion took place:

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 9&t=151394

One quotation:
Domen121 wrote:According to Krivosheev casualties of Ukrainian Front until 30th / 25th of September were 1360 wounded soldiers.

Whereas only the Kievian Military Hospital alone took in at least 1610 wounded in Poland soldiers of RKKA. I don't know what is your opinion, but I think that only seriously wounded were being transported to this central hospital of the Ukrainian Front, while lighter wounded were being treated in field hospitals or smaller local hospitals.

This indicates that the total number of wounded soldiers was at least twice that high (as usually seriously wounded constitute only around 50% or less of all wounded soldiers).

Source for this number (1610) is:

Protocol from the conference of the War Council of KSOW from 26.11.1939.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Art » 24 Jul 2009 17:43

"The average discrepancy between Krivosheev's data for losses in offensive operation of the GPW and archival sources is 0,8%" (S.N. Mikhalev "Human losses in the GPW 1941-45"). That is more or less confirmed by my own observations. For example, the agreement between losses of the Karelian Front in Krivosheev and archival material available here is generally very good. So I believe Krivosheev( or whoever was the real author) honestly reproduced the numbers Soviet military office had. I don't know about situation with Polish campaign, but the the losses of dead and wounded he provides for Finnish and Great Patriotic War are close to calculations Soviet General Staff made right after both conflicts (and that time they were quite naturally not available to public). See:
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 3#p1352143
The largest problem is the number of missing and captured in catastrophic defeats of 1941-42. The General Staff had no full and reliable information on them either in 1942 or in 1945 or even in late 80s. So it's the most problematic part of the research and there reasons to believe that Krivosheev's numbers of missing and captured require large upward correction.
14,7 milions figure seems to be strongly exaggerated and comes most probably from some ancient estimate.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by ljadw » 24 Jul 2009 18:00

Domen and Art,thank you very much. The reason for asking the question is thah I was going to buy Krivosheev,but if his figures were wrong,that should have been a waste of money.I know that the figues of Krivosheev for 1941 are to low and also his figures of Sovjet POW that died in German captivity,but that can not explain the difference of 6000000.Btw he is giving also 2 other figures that are dubious :20000000 for Russian civilian losses(!) and 4000000 for German military deats on the Eastern front .Why ? I don't know, he isn't giving souces.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 19:16

ljadw wrote:Domen and Art,thank you very much. The reason for asking the question is thah I was going to buy Krivosheev,but if his figures were wrong,that should have been a waste of money.I know that the figues of Krivosheev for 1941 are to low and also his figures of Sovjet POW that died in German captivity,but that can not explain the difference of 6000000.Btw he is giving also 2 other figures that are dubious :20000000 for Russian civilian losses(!) and 4000000 for German military deats on the Eastern front .Why ? I don't know, he isn't giving souces.
Well, does the 14million figure has a source behind it? Btw why is 2000000 is so improbable in your opinion? insofar as number of German losses is concerned I believe that he operates with not losses on EF but but losses everywhere - it's been a while however.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 24 Jul 2009 19:17

I know that Krivosheev's figures are considered as quite reliable in most cases, but from the political point of view, Krivosheev seems to be completely biased and still stuck with his mind in the pre-1989 era of communist propaganda.

For example in his chapter about the Soviet campaign in Poland he claims that "the Polish government could not organize a defense of the country and fled on 17 September, having left the fate of their nation and demoralized army to the mercy of faith", while in fact the evacuation of Polish government and Polish High Command to Romania took place during the night from 17th to 18th and the only reason of this evacuation was the Soviet Invasion of Poland.

Being unreliable in such aspects, undermines his authority in general - at least for me.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 19:27

Domen121 wrote:I know that Krivosheev's figures are considered as quite reliable in most cases, but from the political point of view, Krivosheev seems to be completely biased and still stuck with his mind in the pre-1989 era of communist propaganda.

For example in his chapter about the Soviet campaign in Poland he claims that "the Polish government could not organize a defense of the country and fled on 17 September, having left the fate of their nation and demoralized army to the mercy of faith", while in fact the evacuation of Polish government and Polish High Command to Romania took place during the night from 17th to 18th and the only reason of this evacuation was the Soviet Invasion of Poland.

Being unreliable in such aspects, undermines his authority in general - at least for me.
well he is entitled to his opinion as long as there is nothing factually wrong with it is not he?

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 20:05


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Piotr Kapuscinski
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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 24 Jul 2009 20:35

as long as there is nothing factually wrong with it is not he?
He presented it in such a way that everyone who reads his text will think that Polish government escaped to Romania before the Soviet invasion of Poland and not due to the Soviet invasion of Poland - that's why it is factually wrong and he repeats the words of old Russian propaganda in these statements. Read it on your own and see.
well he is entitled to his opinion
Just like Holocaust deniers are entitled to their own opinion - but we all know that they are wrong and unreliable.

And what makes them unreliable is exactly denying Holocaust.
Last edited by Piotr Kapuscinski on 24 Jul 2009 20:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Oleg Grigoryev
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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 20:37

Art wrote:"The average discrepancy between Krivosheev's data for losses in offensive operation of the GPW and archival sources is 0,8%" (S.N. Mikhalev "Human losses in the GPW 1941-45"). That is more or less confirmed by my own observations. For example, the agreement between losses of the Karelian Front in Krivosheev and archival material available here is generally very good. So I believe Krivosheev( or whoever was the real author) honestly reproduced the numbers Soviet military office had. I don't know about situation with Polish campaign, but the the losses of dead and wounded he provides for Finnish and Great Patriotic War are close to calculations Soviet General Staff made right after both conflicts (and that time they were quite naturally not available to public). See:
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 3#p1352143
The largest problem is the number of missing and captured in catastrophic defeats of 1941-42. The General Staff had no full and reliable information on them either in 1942 or in 1945 or even in late 80s. So it's the most problematic part of the research and there reasons to believe that Krivosheev's numbers of missing and captured require large upward correction.
14,7 milions figure seems to be strongly exaggerated and comes most probably from some ancient estimate.
14.7 mil. is suspiciously close to figure given by infamous Boris Sokolov in his 1990 "price of victory"
Борис Соколов. Еще в 1990 г. в книге “Цена Победы” он насчитал 14,7 млн. павших советских воинов (соотношение убитых при этом получилось 3,8:1).
http://www.genstab.ru/kia39-45nvo.htm needless to say that he did not stop there and and by 1993 he decided that Soviet military death toll was about 26.4 mil. :roll:

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Piotr Kapuscinski
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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 24 Jul 2009 20:41

I agree that Krivosheev's casualty figures are the closest to the truth - although probably not always fully reliable.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by ljadw » 24 Jul 2009 20:50

In "the soviet-german war" Glantz is giving"military deaths: 14,7 million,then total losses 35 million(Krivosheev gives total mobilized 34 million) and then:"killed,missing,captured : 14,7 million ". Little confusing.

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 20:53

ljadw wrote:In "the soviet-german war" Glantz is giving"military deaths: 14,7 million,then total losses 35 million(Krivosheev gives total mobilized 34 million) and then:"killed,missing,captured : 14,7 million ". Little confusing.
well - what does Glantz cites as source for his numbers?

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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 24 Jul 2009 21:02


ljadw
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Re: Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

Post by ljadw » 24 Jul 2009 21:17

"What does Glantz cites as souce for his numbers ?" NOTHING (only:actual) I read it 3 times.

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