The absence of visible environments allowed falsify losses. You wrote about 90 thousand total, real losses on July 9, 260 thousand, of which only 13 thousand were wounded. Stavka had no choice but to cover Smolensk. More dangerous was advance of Germans to the east than to the northeast.TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑18 Jan 2019 23:26That includes all of July, not the initial frontier battles from which Northwest Front escaped intact. That escape, along with the escape of Southwest Front, allowed Stavka to concentrate the bulk of its reserves against HGM, which resulted in the battles of Smolensk.
This is an analysis of losses only combat units.
Акцентирую внимание читателя: оценка численности общих потерь в 651 199 чел. проведена только по боевым частям СЗФ. В расчёты не вошли сведения о частях боевого обеспечения (связь, инженерные, дорожные, железнодорожные, химические части) и тыловых частях (строительные, медицинские, ветеринарные, интендантские и прочие части). Если бы была возможность исследовать и их, то, несомненно, объём потерь СЗФ за 188 суток войны был бы ещё больше. Не будет преувеличением предположить о том, что общая численность утрат личного состава СЗФ за этот период с учётом всех частей может составить свыше 700 тысяч человек.
I focus reader's attention: an estimate of the number of total losses in 651,199 people. carried out only on combat units of the NWF. The calculations did not include information on combat support units (communications, engineering, road, rail, chemical units) and rear units (construction, medical, veterinary, commissary and other parts). If there was an opportunity to investigate them, then, undoubtedly, the volume of losses of the NWF in 188 days of war would be even greater. It would not be an exaggeration to assume that the total number of losses of the personnel of the NWF during this period, taking into account all the parts, may amount to more than 700 thousand people.
Supply issues are solvable. The counterstrike of the South-Western Front is a myth. There is nothing to even discuss. This front was defeated in battles with Army Group South.So you're of the opinion that the war is over if Ostheer takes Moscow?
Perhaps I should have clarified this point earlier but I think that's totally wrong.
Soviets were completely prepared to fight on after losing Moscow. An early capture of Moscow means Southwest Front is intact on HGM's right flank and it means the next wave of reserves face HGM where its logistical strains are even greater, being further from its supply bases. Luftwaffe's ability to support would be weakened as well, as it had trouble keeping up with the Ostheer in terms of operating bases.
As I said upthread, an early capture of Moscow - with no diversion to destroy Southwest Front - would have spelled disaster for HGM.
David Glantz is totally right on this point.
After the capture of Moscow, the logistics of the Red Army became more complicated. The delivery of cargo, replenishments would all have to be bypassed around Moscow.
Counterstrike under Soltsy is also a myth. Firstly, it became possible due to the order of Hitler to move east to block Leningrad. The offensive of the tank corps was divided and the Russians were able to gather forces on the flanks for the counterattack. The 8th Panzer Division retained its entire composition, the recovery took several days. Hitler was looking for a reason to stop the offensive, if it were not for him, no one would have remembered about this minor episode.One other point: You continually refer to the need for deeper panzer penetrations. The danger of this tactic is represented by, for example, the encirclement of 8th panzer division in Lithuania during July. It was trapped for four days and, after the battle, had to be withdrawn from combat due to the damage it took.
You basically take at face value everything Mannstein and Guderian said about they could have won the war through their own sheer brilliance. That's a terrible way to read history and I can't think of a single well-respected contemporary historian/analyst who accepts the Mannstein/Guderian line so credulously.