"designed to look deadly"

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jesk
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 06 Oct 2018 06:01

Peter89 wrote:
06 Oct 2018 05:40
The whole Wehrmacht was a brake and not a stopper.

From 1943 onwards the war was inevitably lost for the Germans, what we are doing now is measuring loser alternatives for defense.
But this is ridiculous. The defeat in the Falaise Pocket and in Belorussia in the summer of 1944 appeared in an empty place and and was a consequence of gross blunders of Hitler.

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by BDV » 08 Oct 2018 14:00

Peter89 wrote: The whole Wehrmacht was a brake and not a stopper.

From 1943 onwards the war was inevitably lost for the Germans, what we are doing now is measuring loser alternatives for defense.
im not totally sold on the finality of that for the East Front. Sovjetunion and RKKA need a certain rate of victories/advances in order to keep their momentum going. The 2.5 million conscripted from the liberated territories, the heavy use of auxiliaries, point to the criticality of the March to Berlin moving forward.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by BDV » 08 Oct 2018 14:00

Peter89 wrote: The whole Wehrmacht was a brake and not a stopper.

From 1943 onwards the war was inevitably lost for the Germans, what we are doing now is measuring loser alternatives for defense.
im not totally sold on the finality of that for the East Front. Sovjetunion and RKKA need a certain rate of victories/advances in order to keep their momentum going. The 2.5 million conscripted from the liberated territories, the heavy use of auxiliaries, point to the criticality of the March to Berlin moving forward in a timely fashion.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

Michael Kenny
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Michael Kenny » 08 Oct 2018 14:42

BDV wrote:
08 Oct 2018 14:00

im not totally sold on the finality of that for the East Front. Sovjetunion and RKKA need a certain rate of victories/advances in order to keep their momentum going. The 2.5 million conscripted from the liberated territories, the heavy use of auxiliaries, point to the criticality of the March to Berlin moving forward in a timely fashion.
No matter which way you count your beans the Germans were going to run out of warm bodies long before the Soviets did. Last man standing wins.

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Oct 2018 14:48

No matter which way you count your beans the Germans were going to run out of warm bodies long before the Soviets did. Last man standing wins.
Thats actually incorrect, the Soviets would run out of men first, if the war continued at the pace it did past 43, hence they needed to reach Berlin as fast as possible and additionally the Wehrmacht was unable to give ground to such an extent the RKKA could, because they also had to reinforce other fronts, something the Soviets did not have to do, it is what saved them. Basically it is like this: Weaken the Army, deny territory and capture the rest - if we observe the pure attrition and plot the development (imagine two buckets filled with water, the hole in the Soviet bucket is far bigger), its the Soviets who "die" first (they would just cease their offensives).

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Michael Kenny » 08 Oct 2018 15:13

Stiltzkin wrote:
08 Oct 2018 14:48

Basically it is like this: Weaken the Army, deny territory and capture the rest - if we observe the pure attrition and plot the development (imagine two buckets filled with water, the hole in the Soviet bucket is far bigger), its the Soviets who "die" first (they would just cease their offensives).
I believe that was the German fall-back position after all their attacks stalled. I guess if you are gullible you can believe a tactic that was tried for 3 years and never worked once could have worked in 1945. Perhaps Hitler may have been right and Wenck was a traitor who deliberately sabotaged his cunning plan to knock the Soviets out of the war in April 1945

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Oct 2018 17:48

I believe that was the German fall-back position after all their attacks stalled. I guess if you are gullible you can believe a tactic that was tried for 3 years and never worked once could have worked in 1945. Perhaps Hitler may have been right and Wenck was a traitor who deliberately sabotaged his cunning plan to knock the Soviets out of the war in April 1945
You are incapable of understanding (historically in 1944, it is impossible to stop anyone with the existing constellation), this has nothing to do with plans nor Hitler, it is an observation from a mathematical point of view. Plot it on a graph, you'll see (decay dN(t)/dt). Killrate. Two Graphs, 6 million, 3 million (0,227|0,037) - values derived from Kursk and Bagration. You have two options until battle termination occurs: Give ground and kill (negative), add reinforcements (partially possible, again too few due to older population, multiple fronts and almost no allies). Put two armies in a "vacuum" (clinical conditions, add the respective killrates) and it is not the Wehrmacht that runs out of men first.

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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 08 Oct 2018 17:50

Michael Kenny wrote:
08 Oct 2018 15:13
Perhaps Hitler may have been right and Wenck was a traitor who deliberately sabotaged his cunning plan to knock the Soviets out of the war in April 1945
This is also likely by the way.

http://militera.lib.ru/research/toland1/04.html

By the dawn of the next day, April 27, Berlin was completely surrounded, and the last two airports, Gatov and Tempelhof, were in the hands of the Red Army. In the bunker, after receiving a telegram from Wenk, which stated that his 20th corps reached Fergh, a few kilometers south of Potsdam, there was a lot of excitement and optimism. [442]

The Goebbels office immediately announced that Wenk had reached Potsdam and would soon be in Berlin. If Wenk can get to Berlin, then why can't Busse do this?

The Berliners were told that “... the situation has decisively changed in our favor. Americans go to Berlin. The change in the course of the war is near, and Berlin must be held until the arrival of the Wenk army at all costs! ” In the informational daily report of the army, which was also broadcast on the radio, a detailed description was given:

“The Supreme Army High Command announces that in the heroic battle for Berlin the whole world has once again demonstrated how to fight for life against Bolshevism. While the capital defended itself as never before any capital in history had defended, our troops on the Elbe River dramatically changed the situation in our favor and gave a respite to the defenders of Berlin. Our divisions in the west rejected the enemy on a broad front and reached Fergh. ”
Wenk could not believe that his whereabouts were so blithely revealed.

- Tomorrow we will not succeed in making a step forward! - He exclaimed in a conversation with his chief of staff.

The Russians undoubtedly intercepted this message and now they will certainly concentrate all the available forces from Ferh. According to Wenk, such a transfer could well be regarded as a betrayal.

jesk
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 08 Oct 2018 17:55

Stiltzkin wrote:
08 Oct 2018 14:48
No matter which way you count your beans the Germans were going to run out of warm bodies long before the Soviets did. Last man standing wins.
Thats actually incorrect, the Soviets would run out of men first, if the war continued at the pace it did past 43, hence they needed to reach Berlin as fast as possible and additionally the Wehrmacht was unable to give ground to such an extent the RKKA could, because they also had to reinforce other fronts, something the Soviets did not have to do, it is what saved them. Basically it is like this: Weaken the Army, deny territory and capture the rest - if we observe the pure attrition and plot the development (imagine two buckets filled with water, the hole in the Soviet bucket is far bigger), its the Soviets who "die" first (they would just cease their offensives).
Such assumptions are meaningless, based on the specifics of the fighting. 500 km in 2 weeks from the Vistula to the Oder does not show a general correlation in strength. It testifies only to the mistakes of the Germans.

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Michael Kenny
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Michael Kenny » 08 Oct 2018 17:59

Stiltzkin wrote:
08 Oct 2018 17:48
I believe that was the German fall-back position after all their attacks stalled. I guess if you are gullible you can believe a tactic that was tried for 3 years and never worked once could have worked in 1945. Perhaps Hitler may have been right and Wenck was a traitor who deliberately sabotaged his cunning plan to knock the Soviets out of the war in April 1945
You are incapable of understanding (historically in 1944, it is impossible to stop anyone with the existing constellation), this has nothing to do with plans nor Hitler, it is an observation from a mathematical point of view. Plot it on a graph, you'll see (decay N(t) dt). Killrate. Two Graphs, 6 million, 3 million (0,227|0,037) - values derived from Kursk and Bagration. You have two options until battle termination occurs: Give ground and kill (negative), add reinforcements (partially possible, again too few due to older population, multiple fronts and almost no allies). Put two armies in a "vacuum" (clinical conditions, add the respective killrates) and it is not the Wehrmacht that runs out of men first.
Cudda/shudda/mighta. I am amazed the wealth of detail proving Germany was cheated out of her (mathematically deserved) victory against the Soviets. Your case is unarguable. Germany won the % war by a good (99%?) mile.

As I put it many moons ago Germany was going to run out of land before the Soviets ran out of men

viewtopic.php?p=694200#p694200

Michael Kenny
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Michael Kenny » 08 Oct 2018 18:01

jesk wrote:
08 Oct 2018 17:50
Michael Kenny wrote:
08 Oct 2018 15:13
Perhaps Hitler may have been right and Wenck was a traitor who deliberately sabotaged his cunning plan to knock the Soviets out of the war in April 1945
This is also likely by the way.

http://militera.lib.ru/research/toland1/04.html
You can not even make a joke without someone building an insane scenario around it.

jesk
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 08 Oct 2018 18:05

Michael Kenny wrote:
08 Oct 2018 17:59

As I put it many moons ago Germany was going to run out of land before the Soviets ran out of men

viewtopic.php?p=694200#p694200
Easy too. In January 1944, the participants in the assassination attempt on Hitler planned to cut the eastern front to the East Prussia-Vistula-Karpaty-Danube line. The loss of territory is not significant, the main thing is normal army management.

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Stiltzkin
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Oct 2018 18:08

Cudda/shudda/mighta. I am amazed the wealth of detail proving Germany was cheated out of her (mathematically deserved) victory against the Soviets. Your case is unarguable. Germany won the % war by a good (99%?) mile.

As I put it many moons ago Germany was going to run out of land before the Soviets ran out of men
I do not think that your personal bias belongs here, I am surprised the administrators tolerate anti scientific and anti intellectual behaviour. You were clearly wrong when stating that the Wehrmacht runs out of men under any circumstance first and now you do not even have the decency to admit it. Its childish. It is also not "just land", it is a combination of factors.

jesk
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 08 Oct 2018 18:14

Stiltzkin, and you abuse reasoning about war, regardless of military operations. Why consider them, if it’s so clear, by 1943 Germany lost the war and this can be calculated mathematically. Resources, people, land-lease ...

jesk
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Re: "designed to look deadly"

Post by jesk » 08 Oct 2018 18:22

What the generals wanted. Central reserve 30-40 divisions. With the help of this group of troops to create superiority in the battles. Hitler rejected plans.

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