"Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

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rcocean
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by rcocean » 22 Jan 2022 03:05

What is "Wallied"? :lol:

As for examples of "antisemitism" what has that to do with WW2 in the "Western Theater"? Is Axis History becoming some sort of Chat Board about politics?

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by Richard Anderson » 22 Jan 2022 05:35

All things are possible with perfect precognition. Or hindsight.
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Jan 2022 06:30

Richard Anderson wrote:
22 Jan 2022 05:35
All things are possible with perfect precognition. Or hindsight.
I do have perfect precognition of a post's content based on notifications alone: "That's hindsight!"

Even in a thread asking a discrete historical question, one can bank on it.
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 22 Jan 2022 17:07

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
22 Jan 2022 02:27
As we both believe (I take it) that truncating the Holocaust was not a risk/reward factor in Wallied grand strategic deliberations (internal or external), I have no grounds to criticize Wallied strategy - distinct from Wallied aims - on the grounds that a different strategy would have truncated the Holocaust.
You are using your hindsight of the evolution and extent of the Holocaust aren't you, implicitly if not explicitly, in the way you have framed your question. We now know, for example, that what you called the "Holocaust by bullets" was followed by the Holocaust by Operation Reinhard. Contemporary decision makers couldn't know that.

Are you confident that you can predict how the Germans would have responded to the establishment of a lodgement in NW Europe in late summer by the Western Allies? Would they have accelerated the murder of the Jewish population of Europe as they did in 1944?

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Anglo-American decision-making?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 23 Jan 2022 00:13

Sheldrake wrote:
21 Jan 2022 10:17
1) The term Wallies is a misleading term for the Anglo -American alliancde at the heart of the United Nations formed to oppose the Axis powers. The decision making body was Combined Chiefs of Staff subject to approval by the US President and British PM.

2) Arguably Admiral King did not accept the idea of Germany First and the 3) heads of the air forces considered the Second Front unnecessary.

Agree with your first point. Disagree with your second and third, certainly with regards to Adm. King (USN CNO from March 1942; before that, it was Adm. Stark) and Gen. Arnold (USAAF CG). Germany First had been US strategy in the event of war since Rainbow 5/Plan Dog in 1940 (of which Stark was the author), and for the obvious reason that everyone in a position of responsibility in the US (C-in-C, departmental secretaries, JCS members, etc.) understood Germany had the technical wherewithal to - potentially - pose a threat to North America. Japan did not.

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 23 Jan 2022 07:11

Tom from Cornwall wrote:We now know, for example, that what you called the "Holocaust by bullets" was followed by the Holocaust by Operation Reinhard. Contemporary decision makers couldn't know that.
Whatever you want to call it, it's clear Churchill and Bletchley recognized what was happening in 1941.
The fact that the Police are killing all Jews that fall into their hands
should by now be sufficiently well appreciated.
whole districts are being exterminated.’ He added, ‘We
are in the presence of a crime without a name.’
-------------------------------------
Tom from Cornwall wrote:Are you confident that you can predict how the Germans would have responded to the establishment of a lodgement in NW Europe in late summer by the Western Allies? Would they have accelerated the murder of the Jewish population of Europe as they did in 1944?
I'm quite certain they'd have tried to accelerate it. Industrial genocide, however, shares with war a logistical and administrative element necessary to the killing. It took three years to find Anne Frank, many months to deport (most of) Hungary's Jewish population.
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 23 Jan 2022 12:50

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
23 Jan 2022 07:11
Whatever you want to call it, it's clear Churchill and Bletchley recognized what was happening in 1941.
Yes, I know, I was agreeing with you. Churchill recognised that the Germans were murdering thousands (if perhaps not understanding that it was actually hundreds of thousands) of people in the captured areas of the Soviet Union during the late summer and autumn of 1941.

I confess, I'm not sure if he knew that the Germans were systematically starving to death millions of Soviet prisoners of war at the same time, nor that the Germans were systematically murdering members of the Communist apparatus - Commissars and security agents for example. And I am not equating one crime to another crime, just pointing out my ignorance.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
23 Jan 2022 07:11
Industrial genocide, however, shares with war a logistical and administrative element necessary to the killing. It took three years to find Anne Frank, many months to deport (most of) Hungary's Jewish population.
Leaving aside the individual tragedies, I guess your last comment on the "many months" it took to deport and murder Hungary's Jewish population suggests you think an Allied invasion of NW Europe in late summer 1943 would have necessarily led to the collapse of Nazi Germany within months? Is that what you truly think?

BTW I am finding that this is a horrible discussion as it seems to revolve around the efficiency and spare capacity of the German "Industrial genocide" organisation which is a particularly revolting thing to be thinking about. Before you get defensive, I'm not blaming you for the subject coming up at all, that may well be my fault - just not sure I personally want to think about it.

Edited to add: BTW, for what its worth, I find your use of the term Wallied/Wallies unnecessarily offensive and respectfully ask that you find another phrase to describe the Western Allies.

Regards

Tom

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by rcocean » 24 Jan 2022 01:28

This discussion of the Holocaust, belongs in the category set aside for it.

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 24 Jan 2022 03:12

Tom from Cornwall wrote: I am finding that this is a horrible discussion as it seems to revolve around the efficiency and spare capacity of the German "Industrial genocide" organisation which is a particularly revolting thing to be thinking about. Before you get defensive, I'm not blaming you for the subject coming up at all, that may well be my fault - just not sure I personally want to think about it
It's a brutal thing to think about and even harder to discuss rationally. This is the main reason I have repeatedly tried to narrow the scope of discussion to the narrow question posed in my OP and strenuously to segregate the descriptive question from moral argument. It's also why I'm not even reading comments of certain combative people I've set to ignore.
Tom from Cornwall wrote: your last comment on the "many months" it took to deport and murder Hungary's Jewish population suggests you think an Allied invasion of NW Europe in late summer 1943 would have necessarily led to the collapse of Nazi Germany within months? Is that what you truly think?
My comment is sufficiently justified regardless of Hungary. In Western Europe it took a long time to identify, find, and deport Jewish people. Any earlier conquest would therefore have ameliorated the Holocaust. Indeed, OTL Overlord ameliorated the Holocaust relative to postponements urged by Churchill.

In Hungary and the Balkans there are multiple ways in which a rapid Soviet advance would have made it more difficult to conduct various deportations.

None of this relies on Nazi collapse within within a few months of landings. Furthermore, if you believe as I do that Sledgehammer is highly feasible given different priorities and strategy, then there's no reason to accept your "late summer 43" date. Whether you have the better of me in that argument is a question that needs to be kept analytically distinct, and we should refrain from framing our questions as if we've already won arguments anterior to other questions.
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by Richard Anderson » 24 Jan 2022 03:31

Let's move along now folks, no hindsight to see here, just good old analysis based on 77 years of imagining what could have been done...oh, wait. :roll:
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 24 Jan 2022 03:33

Richard Anderson wrote:
24 Jan 2022 03:31
Let's move along now folks, no hindsight to see here, just good old analysis based on 77 years of imagining what could have been done...oh, wait. :roll:
That's hindsight
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Anglo-American decision-making?

Post by rcocean » 24 Jan 2022 19:39

Disagree with your second and third, certainly with regards to Adm. King (USN CNO from March 1942; before that, it was Adm. Stark) and Gen. Arnold (USAAF CG). Germany First had been US strategy in the event of war since Rainbow 5/Plan Dog in 1940 (of which Stark was the author),


No one in American JCS disagreed with Germany First. The only time it came into question was in August 1942, when simply as a bluff Marshall/King recommended we tell the Brits that if they didn't agree with Sledgehammer, we'd turn to the Pacific. FDR characterized that as "Taking your dishes and going home" aka Childish. British authors constantly use these vague generalities and mind-reading excercises to prove King was NOT "Germany First". "His heart was in the Pacific War" was Alanbrooke's comment.

They seem to confuse "Germany First" with "Only Fight Germany". No hard evidence is ever provided.

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by rcocean » 24 Jan 2022 19:48

BTW, no one has ever suggested delaying Overlord to say August 6, 1944 - even though it might have been a good thing. With an extra 2 months, we could have destroyed the Germans in Italy and forced them to withdraw troops from France to cover the gap in their southern flank.

In addtion, the Soviet summer offensive would've jumped off on June 22, 1944 - also forcing the Germans to withdraw troops from France. While the delay of 2 months would've results in less Good Weather to fight in, we didn't achieve anything in the Fall of 1944 anyway.

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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 24 Jan 2022 20:39

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
24 Jan 2022 03:12
Furthermore, if you believe as I do that Sledgehammer is highly feasible given different priorities and strategy, then there's no reason to accept your "late summer 43" date. Whether you have the better of me in that argument is a question that needs to be kept analytically distinct, and we should refrain from framing our questions as if we've already won arguments anterior to other questions.
I think I follow you, and if I do, I agree completely! :)

Not sure if you want to talk 'Sledgehammer' here or elsewhere, but here is what WSC was writing to FDR on 25 Jul 41. Interested in your analysis of it from a making different choices earlier perspective:
WSC to FDR - War Plans - Serial No T441 - 25 Jul 41 - page 1.JPG
WSC to FDR - War Plans - Serial No T441 - 25 Jul 41 - page 2.JPG
WSC to FDR - War Plans - Serial No T441 - 25 Jul 41 - page 3.JPG
That would, I presume, be before significant reports had been decrypted illuminating the murderous German policies in the Soviet Union.

Regards

Tom
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Re: "Let's liberate Europe earlier" as a factor in Wallied decision-making?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 24 Jan 2022 22:03

Yom from Cornwall wrote:Interested in your analysis of it from a making different choices earlier perspective:
Could you be a little more specific?

My outline of better US choices is pretty clear: build more land forces, fighters, and landing craft - fewer bombers and associated manpower. Lose fewer ships in the Second Happy Time by applying the lessons of both world wars and actually running convoys. Stay Germany First after March or April. (As Eisenhower said - the best thing to win the war is for someone to shoot Admiral King).

For UK I haven't sketched an alternate course because I haven't found the manpower and spending compendia available for US in the form of the Green Books and various statistical summaries.
Last edited by TheMarcksPlan on 25 Jan 2022 09:46, edited 1 time in total.
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