What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by gebhk » 19 Sep 2020 14:58

I suspect that this support waned when it could be used as a precedent in favour of groups of people self-determining that they did not want to be part of the Soviet Union......

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 19 Sep 2020 19:25

But the Soviet Union was a workers' paradise whereas Weimar Germany was a predatory imperialist state! ;)

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by gebhk » 19 Sep 2020 21:56

Funny how those distinctions fade when self-interest coincides......

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 20 Sep 2020 04:03

Was it in the USSR's interest to have a strong Germany, though? 1941 showed the mistake of that type of thinking.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by wm » 20 Sep 2020 19:39

Futurist wrote:
19 Sep 2020 06:25
What happened to the Soviet Union's support of national self-determination? Or did that not apply to German imperialists ruling over Polish territories?
The communists never really support national self-determination; their goal was the dictatorship of the proletariat achieved after a revolution.
But Soviet ideology allowed (or even advocate) temporary support for other people's ideologies or opportunistic alliances (e.g., the Popular Fronts) to achieve their main goal faster.
This is why they exploited nationalism when it delivered results. In this case, such support destabilized Russia, enabled revolution, make their victory easier.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 20 Sep 2020 20:09

Yep, that certainly makes sense. BTW, the Bolsheviks supported a one-world government, right?

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by wm » 20 Sep 2020 21:05

They believed that only a global revolution could have succeeded until Stalin said socialism in a single country is possible.
I don't think anybody cared much about one-world government or even used such a term, but the expectation was it a one-world government would happen at the end.
At least Soviet sci-fi was consistent and naive about it. In the sense that for every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 20 Sep 2020 22:14

Stalin only said that socialism in a single country was possible because world revolution failed, right?

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by wm » 21 Sep 2020 11:44

The global revolution never happened, so it couldn't fail.
But from "only a global revolution could succeed," it followed that, in the long term, the USSR had no chance of survival, and because of that it should have devoted all its resources to spark one.
Stalin disagreed with that.
According to the communists, their ideology was based on the top science and infallible. Ony a great leader could modify it with impunity.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 21 Sep 2020 21:19

Yes, everyone listens to and obeys the top Communist leader if they don't want to get purged and executed.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by gebhk » 23 Sep 2020 13:48

their ideology was based on the top science and infallible
And here lies the nub of the problem, because the very foundation of the scientific method is based on the potential fallibility of the theories it produces. I would suggest that the Marxist theory is scientific (unlike some other disciplines which purport to be). Sadly for its fans, the hypotheses it produced were not supported by experimental outcomes. So like all good sponsors of research, its sponsors fudged the results.... :thumbsup:

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 04 Oct 2020 00:34

gebhk wrote:
23 Sep 2020 13:48
their ideology was based on the top science and infallible
And here lies the nub of the problem, because the very foundation of the scientific method is based on the potential fallibility of the theories it produces. I would suggest that the Marxist theory is scientific (unlike some other disciplines which purport to be). Sadly for its fans, the hypotheses it produced were not supported by experimental outcomes. So like all good sponsors of research, its sponsors fudged the results.... :thumbsup:
I seem to recall that something similar might be happening in psychology right now with the huge replication crisis that's currently going on there--as in, maybe left-wingers want studies to reach particular results so badly that they are willing to bias their studies and thus make the results of their studies extremely difficult or even impossible by others to replicate.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 11 Nov 2020 02:21

@gebhk: If the Soviets do manage to conquer Poland in 1920 and a Western Allied military intervention subsequently prevents the Soviets from conquering Germany and drives the Soviets out of Poland, are the Poles likely to get the Curzon Line as their eastern border or--as in real life--an eastern border further to the east of the Curzon Line?

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Nov 2020 16:59

Depends on how badly the Red Army is beaten. There a big difference between a severe rout and merely a orderly operational retreat for force preservation. At the political level the Curzon Line or similar may be more appealing when thinking about a longer term armistice & border treaty.

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Re: What would have been the consequences of a Soviet conquest of Poland in 1920?

Post by Futurist » 11 Nov 2020 22:41

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
11 Nov 2020 16:59
Depends on how badly the Red Army is beaten. There a big difference between a severe rout and merely a orderly operational retreat for force preservation. At the political level the Curzon Line or similar may be more appealing when thinking about a longer term armistice & border treaty.
Interesting. What might the effects of this have been? For instance, would a Soviet-Czechoslovak alliance have been easier to accomplish in 1938 if these two countries would have actually had a common border? Would this have caused WWII to break out in 1938 instead of in 1939?

Also, who would get Lwow/Lviv in this scenario? Because there were two versions of the Curzon Line:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... en.svg.png

Image

Lwow/Lviv city itself was predominantly Polish but the countryside surrounding it was mostly Ukrainian, I believe.

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