What if : Japan

IAR80 · Post by **IAR80** » 15 Mar 2002 22:54

What if Japan interviened in the summer of 1941 against USSR? Would the emperors' fanatic troops tie down enough ruskies?

Scott Smith · Post by **Scott Smith** » 16 Mar 2002 02:39

I think Japan would have tied-down enough Russian divisions in 1941 that Germany would have been able to take her objectives. She may still not have been able to defeat Russia but Moscow and Leningrad would have been taken and the Archangel-Astrakhan line reached in 1942. Russia would have been completely contained.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 16 Mar 2002 15:12

The Soviets already proved in 1939 that the Japanese weren't a threat to them. Not very many forces were needed to hold a front against the Manchurian army. Please remember that the Japenese didn't have to many troops to spare. They were already engaged in China and were planning a major offensive in SE Asia. They had their own strategic goals to pursue and didn't need Germany's too.

Scott Smith · Post by **Scott Smith** » 16 Mar 2002 18:42

The Japanese don't actually have to capture any Soviet territory. They just have to maintain enough presence that the Soviets do not dare remove their divisions from that front in time to prevent the Germans from capturing key objectives like Moscow and Leningrad before winter. By November at the latest the Soviets knew that the Japanese would not be involved and would in fact attack the United States instead. Everything could thus be thrown West to meet the Germans.

IAR80 · Post by **IAR80** » 16 Mar 2002 19:11

Victor wrote:The Soviets already proved in 1939 that the Japanese weren't a threat to them. Not very many forces were needed to hold a front against the Manchurian army. Please remember that the Japanese didn't have to many troops to spare. They were already engaged in China and were planning a major offensive in SE Asia. They had theor own strategic goals to pursue and didn't need Germany's too.

Getting beat up a little bit wasn't gonna stop the japs from attacking USSR if the emperor only realised that the fall of USSR might mean more pressure on the British from germans then later aid against the US (nukes, rockets, etc...), their agenda would only be postponed not cancelled or changed, besides, seizing Siberia and the factories would be of great benefit to Japan. In 1939 the conflict was a border war don't let the order of battle or the numbers fool you.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 17 Mar 2002 18:19

Getting beat up a little bit wasn't gonna stop the japs from attacking USSR if the emperor only realised that the fall of USSR might mean more pressure on the British from germans then later aid against the US (nukes, rockets, etc...)

A little??? The Soviets beat the crap out them.

their agenda would only be postponed not cancelled or changed, besides, seizing Siberia and the factories would be of great benefit to Japan.

I already told you that the Japanese weren't capable of conquering anything in the far east. Their army wasn't suited for combat in that kind of scenery. Anyway, this discussion is pointless. Japan simply couldn't afford to postpone its attack on the US. Their fuel stocks were going down and couldn't wait.

IAR80 · Post by **IAR80** » 07 Apr 2002 12:14

Still, even limited operations, like taking Vladivostok, Habarovsk and Sahalin, could help a lot since USSR was moving its factories behind the Urals and it relied on US Lend-Lease equipment until 1942.
All japan had to do is move in in July and keep Vladivostok until October and tying down some troops while at it. USSR would finally be pushed beyond the Urals, being out of food, ammo, and prime materials for their factories.
The other routes:
Murmansk: secured by Kreigsmarine, real dangerous.
Arctic and Iran: limited supply capabilities because of lack of infrastructure(doh...).

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 11 Apr 2002 20:03

“Limited operations” would have meant less forces available to attack the US and British forces. I have to remind you that the Japanese leadership considered that these were their most dangerous enemies. Yamamoto estimated that if Japan didn’t force the Americans to sue for peace quickly, it will surely loose the war. So less forces available to strike America, less chances (which were already slim) to defeat it.
You also grossly overestimate the importance of LL. It did help the SU get through those hard times, but it was by no means decisive. BTW, in 1941 and 42 only small quantities arrived.

IAR80 · Post by **IAR80** » 12 Apr 2002 21:52

Hmm... I'm not sure.
It was during summer 1941-feb 1942 that the major factories were moved behind the Urals into Siberia. It was during this period that the soviets needed and got most of the lend lease, both raw materials and equipment, most importantly planes and some american light tanks, am I right?
Also food was critical with Ukraine occupied.
More than 50% of the deliveries happened right under the japs nose in Vladivostok.
The intervention would of course need to be perfectly executed to spare most importantly oil, like you mentioned. But as Pearl Harbor had shown the Japanese possesed the military planners for such a surprise strike.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 13 Apr 2002 07:36

LL was not essential for the survival of the SU. Sure it helped, but that's all. Study more about it and you will see this. And, as I told you, LL arrived in small quantities in 1941-42.

GrossDeutschland · Post by **GrossDeutschland** » 01 May 2002 19:52

This scenario is explored by Peter Tsouras in Rising Sun Victorious. He seems to know what he's talking about, and its worth the read, as is the rest of the book (at least for those of you interested in theoretical outcomes of the CBI and Pacific Theatres of War).

Lars EP · Post by **Lars EP** » 01 May 2002 22:42

I don't think Japan would have been able to do a lot against the S.U.

As the -39 campaign at Kalin Gol, clearly indicates, the japanese troops where not really a match for RKKA. Especially in artillery and tanks they where hopelessly outmatched. The japanese tanks where easy meat for the sovjet T-26, BT-2, BT-5 and BT-7.

Since then they had not really been developed, as Japan concentrates about naval forces. That means they would have been even more outgunned in -41, facing KV-1's and T-34's. And Japan was already overmatched against the U.S. As Yamamoto said: "We have one year to win this war!" And when he was told that the U.S. carriers had escaped Pearl Harbor, he knew he faced disaster.

Actually I will almost claim, that Japan tied down more sovjet forces by not attacking. If they had attacked when Barbarossa was launched, they would have been chrushed by the Siberians, and Stalin could then have issued the order to transfer them to the German front months earlier.

Regards --- Lars EP

Pumpkin · Post by **Pumpkin** » 03 May 2002 15:48

The US had imposed an oil emargo on Japan before the war, right? Did Japan then buy oil from the Soviet Union? Couldn't they buy oil from SU throughout the war? They did let Soviet supplies through, didn't they get anything in return for that?

IAR80 · Post by **IAR80** » 03 May 2002 17:02

My friend, we're talking about the japanese here...
Fanatic stands, harakiri, kamikaze, ring a bell?
These guys could be shot to pieces and still keep coming (kinda like the mujahedeen encountered by the sovs in Afghanistan). You think that they would be crushed just like that? Of course the japanese army lacked decent tanks, however the type 97 ATR could deal with the BT and T-26 series. Also the japanese air force could provide air cover to compensate for the tanks. Still I underline that the campaign, in my view, would last sometime between June-October. The japanese needed the rest of its oil reserves to attack Pearl Harbour and build its dreams of a greater Asia. Anyway, meddling around and trying to reach the mammoth russian factories might have caused enough distress so that Hitler could have secured a front on the foot of the Urals that winter.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 03 May 2002 20:42

Keep dreaming, my friend, keep dreaming...

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