Hello All :
Mr Takao stated :
#303 by Takao » 10 Jul 2022 10:49
Typically unimaginative and apparently asleep
Typical and unimaginative.
One side uses dice marked only with "20"s and the other side uses
dice marked only with "1"s.
Wake me when we get to something actually interesting.
- You know Mr. Takao, you would have been a perfect
officer in the U.S. Navy in the final years leading up to Pearl Harbor ! And, At Dawn, You Slept !
The raw fact is, if McClusky had turned SOUTH, the USN would have been beaten at Midway. At that moment,
the USN carriers had used up eight of their twelve squadrons. If McClusky had turned SOUTH, another two
squadrons would have been out of the fight, leaving only one SBD squadron and one squadron of F4Fs on the
USN carriers. Even with the Soryu out of the fight, that gives the IJN six squadrons of attack aircraft and
three squadrons of fighters. Up until the moment that McClusky sighted the Kido Butai, the IJN didn't
need 20s on their dice, because the incredible mistakes and poor performance of the USN meant that
the USN was rolling Snake Eyes !
Sorry, Mr. Takao, you just Crapped OUT !
Mr. T.A.Gardner wrote:
#299 by T. A. Gardner » 09 Jul 2022 22:12
The most likely outcome at Midway to Paulward's scenario is the landing
forces try to land and are wiped out in the process.
No, the most likely outcome is the the SNLF and IJA come in from the west, through the Seward Roadstead,
land on beaches at Welles Harbor, and with about 2500 men, assisted by strafing IJN aircraft and the big
guns of IJN Battleships and Heavy Cruisers, along with direct fire support from IJN Destroyers, the landing
force,led by the 1000 ton destroyers that the IJN had converted to the equivalent of APDs, would carry out
the landing on Sand Island, and overwhelm the defenders, who numbered less than 1000, in about eight
The Japanese rest and reorganize all night, and the next day, carry out landings on Eastern Island, which
goes the same way. The Army evacuates the last of the B=17s, and Navy pulls out the few surviving PBYs,
and the Midway Marines join the Guam Marines, the Wake Marines, and the Corregidor Marines as POWs.
Only an idiot
Only at Midway, the landing forces can't run their ships aground but must sit
offshore and use small boats to try and cross an open reef and heavy surf.
would believe that the Japanese planned to cross the southern reefs. The Japanese had occuped
Midway for more than 30 years during the 19th century, until driven off in 1903. They had excellent maps and
charts, and knew all about the Roadstead and the Harbor, having used it for years themselve. Trying to take
both islands simultaneously is stupid, no reasonably bright Japanese commander would have tried it. Going
in through the Seward Roadstead is clearly the correct way, and, with Sand Island masking the gunfire from
Eastern Island, you get to knock off the two garrisons one at a time.
And, Mr. Gardner, it is EASY to run boats aground on the beaches of Welles Harbor - you can watch YouTube
videos of it being done !
Only to the USMC Fanboys.
Wake was a near-run thing the second time around for Japan.
Two thousand Japanese over-ran 500 Americans, who surrendered after suffering
20% casualties. Surrendered in less than eight hours.
The second problem is the IJN are amateurs at underway replenishment.
And the USN, the USMC, and the USA are Amateurs at EVERYTHING ! For six months the Japanese had been
using American forces like an inflatable sex doll. Midway would have been no different.
As for "blockad(ing)" Hawaii, that's an utter absurdity. Japan has no means
to keep a fleet off those islands
Ah, So! The Myth of the Helpless Imperial Navy ! They can't do ANYTHING ! They can't bomb Pearl Harbor,
they can't raid Darwin, they can't take the Dutch Indies or go raiding into the Indian Ocean, slaughtering
British Ships ! They can't take the Philippines, they can't take Wake Island, they are HELPLESS !!!
This ignores that fact that the IJN COULD do underway replenishment, and DID have a Naval Gunfire Support
Doctrine, and DID, on December 7th, 1941, and for the following year, HAVE MORE TANKERS AND OILERS IN
THE PACIFIC THAN DID THE USN !
If the USN loses at Midway, and then loses that last of it's Fast Carriers fighing to keep the IJN away from
Hawaii, then Hawaii IS blockaded ! With NO flight decks, the Battleships, Cruisers, and Destroyers have
to retreat to the West Coast, or be bombed into helplessness. The useless USN submarines, moved back
to San Diego, now have to travel more than 2000 miles just to get to Hawaii, where they find their torpedoes
STILL don't work, and won't work until September, 1943 !
The Japanese, on the other hand, now have both the Mandates, Wake, and Midway to use as forward bases,
and IJN submarines, free from the threat of USN ASW warships, can go marauding in the waters to the
east of Hawaii, destroying convoy ships at will Again, I must emphasize, 80 % of all foodstuffs, and 100 %
of all fuel used in Hawaii was brought in by ship. No shipping, no food or gasoline, and in about two months,
the wheels start coming off the Hawaiian Defense Force.
If the USN is stupid enough to try to send a large, escorted Convoy, it will have NO Carriers with it. Long
range IJN flying boats based at Midway, and refueled at sea from submarines, locate the USN Convoy,
and an IJN task force with two or three Carriers, escorted by Battlecruisers, intercepts it and wipes it out.
IJN submarines, which are equipped with torpedoes that actually work! , polish off the survivors.
They certainly aren't taking Hawaii by any means.
Right. Because Oahu is the Gibralter of the Pacific. Just like Singapore......
Mr. Gardner, this kind of bombast is beneath you. Go wargame it, and then come back to me with a
real conclusion. The fact is, Midway was Nimitz's last throw of the dice. A loss there potentially puts
the entire Pacific into the hands of the Japanese. And Nimitz and his staff knew it.
Even if the Japanese first took one of the other islands that wasn't
occupied by masses of US troops, their forces would find themselves quickly
outnumbered in the air and faced with iffy chances of resupply. Basically,
they'd become a self-imposed POW camp.
Right. The Japanese would be just like the Americans at Guadalcanal. Surrounded by an Ocean they
control, fighting against forces that are cut off and running out of supplies with each passing day.
Obviously the Japanese would have to surrender, just like the Marines did in the Solomons.......
Taking Oahu directly would take easily four infantry divisions with
massive supporting units.
Yet, somehow the Japanese managed to defeat the British in Malaya, even though they had insufficient
supplies and were outnumbered.......
But, with the USN out of the game for at least a year, and Hawaii cut off, with their bellies getting hungrier
with each passing day, with no new supplies of fuel, ammunition, or spare parts for their aircraft, the mood
on Hawaii would start to shift. The garrison would remember what happened in Malaya, the Dutch Indies,
Guam, Wake, the Philippines, and Midway. All cut off, all starved into weakness and helplessness, and
all forced to surrender to the 'BANZAI'ing ' Japanese soldiers. The ' Battling Bastards of Bataan ' would
be joined by the ' Hopeless Haoles of Hawaii '. And every Doughboy and every Leatherneck would remember
how, in each case, the United States Navy simply sailed away and left them to their fate.
At Wake, the Marines suffered 20 % casualties before surrendering. The same thing happened in the Philippines,
It would also happen on Hawaii. Sorry, Mr. Gardner, but John Wayne and Captain America have just left the
June 1942 39 F4F, and 92 PBY on Oahu alone. The USMC and USAAF had
more. From what I can gather there were at least three fighter groups on the
island with about a bit over 100 P-40E fighters alone for the USAAF. There might
have been more.
ALL the Avgas had to come from the Mainland. With IJN submarines doing to USN Tankers in the Pacific
what Doenitz's U-boats were doing along the Atlantic Coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Carribean,
that means after a few months there is no more fuel for all those fighters.
Mr. Gardner, a P-40 with empty fuel tanks is a very expensive Lawn Ornament !
Mr. Gardner, you and Mr. Takao have the same Problem - you look at WW2 BACKWARDS through the lens
of 1944-45, when U.S. Military Power was invincible. But, if you go back to 1942, when U.S. Forces were
weak and demoralized, when the Officers were inexperienced and incompetent, and our enemies had
equipment that, in many cases, was much better than ours, your view changes.
Mr. Gardner, you claimed to have created Wargames. So, go ahead. Set up a Wargame assuming the
USN loses at MIdway, all three carriers, and sinks the Soryu. Then go forward from there. Find a good,
smart opponent to play the Japanese. And get ready to have your world turned upside down !
Paul R. Ward