Panzer Group 4 in Army Group Center

[historygeek2021]

What if Panzer Group 4 under Erich Hoepner were assigned to Army Group Center at the start of Operation Barbarossa? Instead of attacking north toward Dvinsk, Pskov and Luga, Panzer Group 4 would attack to the east and encircle the Soviet 11th Army, securing the northern flank of Panzer Group 3 (Maps from David Glantz's Barbarossa):

June attacks.png

The Soviet 8th Army in Lithuania will be forced to retreat to Estonia as it did in the OTL, with the German 18th Army in pursuit. The German 16th Army will screen the gap south and east of Pskov between the Germany 18th Army and Panzer Group 4.

In July, Panzer Group 4 will cover the northern flank of Panzer Group 3 by encircling the Soviet 22nd Army at Velikiye Luki. Panzer Group 3 would thus be free to concentrate its forces against the Soviet armies around Smolensk, and might be able to punch its way across to Panzer Group 2 in mid-July (unlike the OTL), allowing the encirclement at Smolensk to be concluded 1-2 weeks earlier (August 6 in the OTL).

July attacks.png

In August, Guderian's Panzer Group 2 can carry out the same missions it did in the OTL: eliminating the Soviet 28th Army at Roslavl and helping the German 2nd Army defeat Soviet forces at Rogachev and Gomel. Instead of having to attack the Soviet 22nd Army at Velikiye Luki as in the OTL, Panzer Group 3 will be free to join Panzer Group 4 for an attack on the 29th, 30th and 24th Soviet armies to the east of Smolensk:

August Operations.png

In September, Guderian can drive south to encircle Kiev just as he did in the OTL, while Panzer Groups 3 and 4 attack the Soviet 31-34 armies to the east of Vyazma and enter Moscow:

September Operations.png

After taking Moscow at some point in September, Panzer Groups 3 and 4 will likely have time for one more offensive operation to clear Soviet armies to the east of Moscow before the October mud begins on October 8. Meanwhile Guderian can attack from south of Bryansk the same as he did in the OTL. With less Soviet resistance due to the success of Panzer Groups 3 and 4 in August and September, Guderian should be able to link up with Panzer Group 3 between Tula and Moscow in October:

October operations.png

The result of the ATL is that Moscow falls at some point in September, and the Germans have eliminated more Soviet armies faster than they did in the OTL, giving them a better force ratio going into winter. The big positive for the USSR in this ATL is that Leningrad is secure and well supplied by single railway lines coming from Yaroslavl and Vologda as well as the Volga River through the Rybinsk Sea.

The big question is whether the Germans can hold on to Moscow or will they suffer a massive encirclement when the Soviets counterattack in December-February. The Germans will be less likely to resume their offensive in mid-November than they were in the OTL. In the OTL, Bock's logistics chief of staff wanted to halt operations in November due to the poor supply situation, but Bock was extremely eager to capture Moscow so he pressed forward the attack anyway. In this ATL, Bock will already have taken Moscow, so he will be less likely to continue to overstretch his troops in late November. A mid-November defensive stance should put his troops in a better position than they were in the OTL when the Soviet counter-offensive began in December. Nevertheless, the German armies will still be overstretched and German logistics will still be a nightmare in winter due to their trains not being equipped to survive freezing temperatures over long distances. In all likelihood the Germans are forced to retreat to the north and south of Moscow but manage to cling to a salient around Moscow similar to the Rzhev salient in the OTL.

Disappointed that the USSR does not collapse following the fall of Moscow, Hitler returns to his obsession with economic objectives in 1942 and orders the same Fall Blau campaign as in the OTL. The Soviet Union will not be substantially, if at all, weaker in 1942 in this ATL than they were in the OTL. The USSR will have lost Moscow but kept Leningrad from being encircled. But the German army will likely be just as weak in 1942 in this ATL as it was in the OTL. The result is that the rest of the war plays out the same as the OTL. The German 6th Army is encircled and destroyed at Stalingrad. The Germans try one last summer offensive in 1943, after which they are forced to abandon Moscow. Germany's eastern front collapses in 1944 due to not having enough manpower to fight against both the Allied invasion of Normandy and the Red Army. The Red Army conquers Berlin in May 1945.

[historygeek2021]

There was a limit on the number of maps I could upload. Here is the situation after the German offensives in early October:

October aftermath.png

[Avalancheon]

It is possible to encircle 11th Army without even changing the general direction of Panzer Group 4. This requires the deployment of both 41st and 56th Corps for a concentrated strike against Daugavpils alone, rather than a twin strike against Daugavpils and Jekabpils. The capture of so many Soviet troops could have been a game changer.

Heres what could have happened: 56th Corps would be sent against Daugavpils, with 41st Corps following behind them. As they reach Ukmerge, 41st Corps would turn south and advance towards Vilnius. They hit 11th Army from behind and cut off their line of retreat, surrounding them.

41st Corps links up with some units from 39th Corps, encircling the Soviets at Vilnius. After days of hard fighting, they capture the city and destroy 11th Army. 41st Corps then moves to the bridgehead at Daugavpils established by 56th Corps, in anticipation of a breakout from the Daugava river.

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[TheMarcksPlan]

It is possible to encircle 11th Army without even changing the general direction of Panzer Group 4. This requires the deployment of both 41st and 56th Corps for a concentrated strike against Daugavpils alone, rather than a twin strike against Daugavpils and Jekabpils. The capture of so many Soviet troops could have been a game changer.

Heres what could have happened: 56th Corps would be sent against Daugavpils, with 41st Corps following behind them. As they reach Ukmerge, 41st Corps would turn south and advance towards Vilnius. They hit 11th Army from behind and cut off their line of retreat, surrounding them.

41st Corps links up with some units from 39th Corps, encircling the Soviets at Vilnius. After days of hard fighting, they capture the city and destroy 11th Army. 41st Corps then moves to the bridgehead at Daugavpils established by 56th Corps, in anticipation of a breakout from the Daugava river.


WW2 in Estonia_.png

Yeah I've never understood Leeb/OKH's thinking here. A mad rush to get over the river, no use of mech forces for operational encirclement. Unlike AGS, AGN faced opposition sufficiently weak to enable encirclements by a single panzer group.

Any good sources on the plan here? GSWW has good operational-level details re AGS and AGC but little on AGN. Obviously there's NARA files but time is limited and I'm wondering if the secondary literature has already treated it before I go digging around for AGN planning (some time in 2024 probably).