Mussolini decides not to help Franco

[T. A. Gardner]

What if Mussolini and Italy decided not to get involved in the Spanish civil war? Instead, Mussolini puts that money into building up his own armed forces and more infrastructure in his colonial holdings. Mussolini does provide Franco with some badly outdated equipment that his own armed forces would never use, but beyond that nada.

This would save the Italians millions in cash, and provide enough weapons to equip another corps of infantry at a minimum. Eventually, the Italians would put over 80,000 troops into Spain to fight alongside Franco's men. Not deployed, they could either be productive in the Italian economy, or working towards Italian national goals.

[thaddeus_c]

it is plausible the Nationalist coup succeeds, eliminating the need for Italian involvement?

my understanding the Italian "establishment" preferred Mussolini involved in the Spanish Civil War over invading Yugoslavia (which was considered a possibility, at many points, but especially in the aftermath of "successful" Italo-Ethiopian War?)

do we think if they are "eclipsed" from becoming involved in Spain they are going to avoid an even larger conflict?

[T. A. Gardner]

it is plausible the Nationalist coup succeeds, eliminating the need for Italian involvement?

my understanding the Italian "establishment" preferred Mussolini involved in the Spanish Civil War over invading Yugoslavia (which was considered a possibility, at many points, but especially in the aftermath of "successful" Italo-Ethiopian War?)

do we think if they are "eclipsed" from becoming involved in Spain they are going to avoid an even larger conflict?

Here, it's not a question of whether the "establishment" wants it or not, here they don't if that moves the scenario forward. The intent is that Italy is focused on strengthening their own military and increasing control over colonial possessions. There would also be planning for additional colonial expansion to reestablish a new Roman empire.

If Spain went Nationalist, a possibility, what implications would that have? If Franco still wins--and the Italians can give limited material support--where would that leave Spain since a victory either way is likely to be pyrrhic?

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi T. A. Gardner,

If Mussolini hadn't intervened in Spain, it is entirely possible Franco would have failed in 1936. Italy supplied half the aircraft that transported much of the Army of Africa to southern Spain. It would certainly have saved Italy a lot of treasure and obsolescent weaponry not to be involved in Spain over 1936-39, but Italy also had the steady financial drain of Ethiopia weighing on its finances over the same period and its weaponry was generally obsolescent anyway, as it had been the first major power (USSR excepted) to begin a new, post-WWI, rearmament cycle. Its second rearmament cycle of more modern, competitive weapons only bore fruit in the early 1940s, but too late for much of it to reach the troops.

By contrast, a Republican Spain would have made Allied calculations much easier in 1939-40 and presumably Italy justifiably even more cautious.

What I have never understood is why Mussolini did not manage to extract resource contracts from Franco on the scale Hitler managed.

Cheers,

Sid.

[nuyt]

If Musso stays out of Spain and Franco is about to lose, shouldn't that lead to more and bigger German intervention (more weapons, troops), which would give (fascist) Spain an even better outcome (better equipment, better training, German influence/investment in more areas), than in OTL?

[T. A. Gardner]

If Musso stays out of Spain and Franco is about to lose, shouldn't that lead to more and bigger German intervention (more weapons, troops), which would give (fascist) Spain an even better outcome (better equipment, better training, German influence/investment in more areas), than in OTL?

That might be possible. It would depend largely on whether Hitler thinks a fascist Spain is more important than his arms build up at home is as that would impact it. It would also be a matter of how France and Britain react to a much greater German military presence in Spain, I'd think.

[thaddeus_c]

it is plausible the Nationalist coup succeeds, eliminating the need for Italian involvement?

If Spain went Nationalist, a possibility, what implications would that have? If Franco still wins--and the Italians can give limited material support--where would that leave Spain since a victory either way is likely to be pyrrhic?

If Mussolini hadn't intervened in Spain, it is entirely possible Franco would have failed in 1936.

a Republican Spain would have made Allied calculations much easier in 1939-40 and presumably Italy justifiably even more cautious.

What I have never understood is why Mussolini did not manage to extract resource contracts from Franco on the scale Hitler managed.

a quick Nationalist coup would seem the best POD for this discussion, and for Fascist Italy. agree with Sid Guttridge, a Republican Spain would simplify things for the Allies and complicate things for the Axis.

if you do not have the extended Spanish Civil War (and Stalin does not looted their treasury), it is at least more plausible they jump into the war?

my understanding on the resources from Spain, the Nazi regime had to pay up in gold, there was no dealings with the huge debts the Nationalists had incurred.

[T. A. Gardner]

a quick Nationalist coup would seem the best POD for this discussion, and for Fascist Italy. agree with Sid Guttridge, a Republican Spain would simplify things for the Allies and complicate things for the Axis.

if you do not have the extended Spanish Civil War (and Stalin does not looted their treasury), it is at least more plausible they jump into the war?

my understanding on the resources from Spain, the Nazi regime had to pay up in gold, there was no dealings with the huge debts the Nationalists had incurred.

I'd think it would be once Russia is invaded. Up to that point, a Nationalist government would make more difference, and likely in a negative way, for France. I could see the Communists in Spain deciding that the revolution they just won in Spain would be a good thing for France too. The resulting agitation and political warfare within the French government would likely weaken their ability to build a solid defense to Germany over what occurred historically.
If Mussolini kept his relations with Stalin cordial the Italians might even benefit from this arrangement.

[Peter89]

a Republican Spain would have made Allied calculations much easier in 1939-40

Easier in what sense?

a quick Nationalist coup would seem the best POD for this discussion, and for Fascist Italy. agree with Sid Guttridge, a Republican Spain would simplify things for the Allies and complicate things for the Axis.

I don't know; the Spanish neutrality was a great help to the Allies, especially at a critical point in the war in 1940-1941. Had there been a republican Spain, this neutrality would be way harder to maintain.

my understanding on the resources from Spain, the Nazi regime had to pay up in gold, there was no dealings with the huge debts the Nationalists had incurred.

No. Germans paid very little gold to Spain. As a general rule, they ran a compensation clearing system; this was the way how the Germans paid compensation for Spanish shipping losses and reimbursement for Spanish labour.

Also no for the Nationalist regime's debt. The Spanish had 372m RM debt on 28 February 1941, of which 100m RM remained at the end of the war. The Germans also ran a deficit of 106.5m RM on 29 April 1944, thus we can say that the Spanish paid back the German help, although they could lower the real value of their debts by taxing the hell out of wolfram and forcing Germany (and the Allies) to pay more for the goods than they should have.

[thaddeus_c]

a Republican Spain would have made Allied calculations much easier in 1939-40

Easier in what sense?

a quick Nationalist coup would seem the best POD for this discussion, and for Fascist Italy. agree with Sid Guttridge, a Republican Spain would simplify things for the Allies and complicate things for the Axis.

I don't know; the Spanish neutrality was a great help to the Allies, especially at a critical point in the war in 1940-1941. Had there been a republican Spain, this neutrality would be way harder to maintain.

you have an unusual view of the situation, the neutrality of the Fascist Spain government WAS of benefit to the Allied side only in the sense they didn't "jump into" the war on the Axis side (at the most inopportune time(s), while France crumbled or aftermath of British attack on the French fleet?)

I would say France and GB would have welcomed Republican Spain onto Allied side, makes the "France fights on" scenario more likely, they're not worrying about their "joint tenant" in Morocco.

[Peter89]

a Republican Spain would have made Allied calculations much easier in 1939-40

Easier in what sense?

a quick Nationalist coup would seem the best POD for this discussion, and for Fascist Italy. agree with Sid Guttridge, a Republican Spain would simplify things for the Allies and complicate things for the Axis.

I don't know; the Spanish neutrality was a great help to the Allies, especially at a critical point in the war in 1940-1941. Had there been a republican Spain, this neutrality would be way harder to maintain.

you have an unusual view of the situation, the neutrality of the Fascist Spain government WAS of benefit to the Allied side only in the sense they didn't "jump into" the war on the Axis side (at the most inopportune time(s), while France crumbled or aftermath of British attack on the French fleet?)

I would say France and GB would have welcomed Republican Spain onto Allied side, makes the "France fights on" scenario more likely, they're not worrying about their "joint tenant" in Morocco.

Yes, but not between the fall of France and the Normandy landings. If there is a republican Spain after the fall of France, the Germans would have a pretext to invade and occupy Spain, possibly the whole Iberian peninsula. Gibraltar would fall and the war would take another direction entirely, with serious consequences for the MTO.

Spain had zero chance to survive against the Wehrmacht in 1940/1941, and the British could not help them either. They tried to help the Greeks, but that didn't work; the Wehrmacht reigned supreme on the continent after the fall of France.

[nuyt]

Now that's an interesting line. Germany invades the Iberian peninsula in late 1940. They will beat a Spanish Rep Army relatively easy, but they need a lot of troops to occupy the whole of Spain and Portugal (that would probably prefer to let the Germans in peacefully. Imagine the divisions, the Kriegsmarine assets and Luftwaffe squadrons needed to pacify Spain and protect it from Allied invasion... what consequences would that have for the East Med. the Balkans and Barbarossa? Yes, I can see Gibraltar taken, though the British may use it as well to launch a counterattack or occupy parts of Andalusia, slowing down the German successes. But if Gib falls, the Italian navy has a chance of survival and can dominate the East Med. Talking about the Italians, they might be needed to join the occupation of Iberia and some divisions could be posted on the Med shores of Spain, saving the Wehrmacht for the Atlantic coast and the rugged ares, that no doubt will house Rep resistance and guerilla. And that could be interesting, after all the Spanish invented guerilla.

[Peter89]

Now that's an interesting line. Germany invades the Iberian peninsula in late 1940. They will beat a Spanish Rep Army relatively easy, but they need a lot of troops to occupy the whole of Spain and Portugal (that would probably prefer to let the Germans in peacefully. Imagine the divisions, the Kriegsmarine assets and Luftwaffe squadrons needed to pacify Spain and protect it from Allied invasion... what consequences would that have for the East Med. the Balkans and Barbarossa? Yes, I can see Gibraltar taken, though the British may use it as well to launch a counterattack or occupy parts of Andalusia, slowing down the German successes. But if Gib falls, the Italian navy has a chance of survival and can dominate the East Med. Talking about the Italians, they might be needed to join the occupation of Iberia and some divisions could be posted on the Med shores of Spain, saving the Wehrmacht for the Atlantic coast and the rugged ares, that no doubt will house Rep resistance and guerilla. And that could be interesting, after all the Spanish invented guerilla.

If republican Spain is defeated, the Germans / Italians do not need to occupy Spain with large forces; they could put Franco or other nationalists to power. Portugal is another matter entirely.

[Kingfish]

But if Gib falls, the Italian navy has a chance of survival and can dominate the East Med.

How does the loss of Gibraltar result in the Italians dominating the Eastern Med?

[Carl Schwamberger]

The assumption is the Brits can't send a fleet past a Axis controlled Gibraltar. Allowing the Italians to concentrate their focus in the east & presumably being more effective because of this. i'll leave others to debate the validity of those assumptions.