Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

At the time of the Japanese surrender in August 1945, the Chinese were on the offensive. They were planning on mopping Japanese holdings in Southern China and take back the Yellow river. How would the Second Sino Japanese war go if Japan didn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Source : https://history.army.mil/brochures/chinoff/chinoff.htm

[Terry Duncan]

Any chance you could fill out the details in this subject to conform with the requirements for What If scenarios?

T Duncan

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Any chance you could fill out the details in this subject to conform with the requirements for What If scenarios?

T Duncan

Edited to fit the requirements

[Terry Duncan]

Thank you, but I was sort of meaning this part of the guidelines.

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viewtopic.php?f=11&t=77436

I tend to let a lot past if the topic is of interest to members, probably when I shouldnt, so it is best to at least look to meeting some of these points as senior staff may well be less lenient. I know you are new here, so just have a quick look through what Andy H laid down and keep them in mind for the future please.

Terry

[OpanaPointer]

When did the first Sino-Japanese War end?

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

When did the first Sino-Japanese War end?

1895

[OpanaPointer]

When did the first Sino-Japanese War end?

1895

Ah, the way-back machine kicks in. T/Y

[Carl Schwamberger]

... They were planning on mopping Japanese holdings in Southern China and take back the Yellow river. How would the Second Sino Japanese war go if Japan didn't surrender after the atomic bombs? ...

My take is there were two somewhat contradictory political/military goals for the KMT. One was to demonstrate their strength by a successful series of offensives and taking important territory from the Japanese. Another was to preserve military strength for defeating the remaining Communist group. If the KMT is to pursue the second goal, then there may be limits on the effort it can make to reach the other goal.

Separately there is the Japanese ability to defeat a Chinese offensive. This scenario does not exclude the effect of the defense of Manchuria. So Japan must divert resources to defeat the Red Army enclaves in Korea, and more important defend the new northern front.

[Kingfish]

Separately there is the Japanese ability to defeat a Chinese offensive. This scenario does not exclude the effect of the defense of Manchuria. So Japan must divert resources to defeat the Red Army enclaves in Korea, and more important defend the new northern front.

Lets not forget the behemoth that will soon emerge off the shores of Kyushu.

Me thinks the vast majority of Japanese resources would be devoted to meeting that threat.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Lets not forget the behemoth that will soon emerge off the shores of Kyushu.

Me thinks the vast majority of Japanese resources would be devoted to meeting that threat.

The loss of the cargo fleet 1943-44 means shifting much from the Asian mainland to defend Japan is not practical. The 1945 rice harvest was failing threatening starvation the winter of 1945-46 & the difference could not be made up from Asian stocks for the severe shortage of cargo ships. This was as influential on the decision to surrender as the A Bomb & the Soviet DoW.

If theres no cargo ships to deliver rice theres certainly not enough capacity for delivering soldiers, fuel, or much else needed to defend the Home Islands.

[Kingfish]

If theres no cargo ships to deliver rice theres certainly not enough capacity for delivering soldiers, fuel, or much else needed to defend the Home Islands.

I was thinking of it going in the opposite direction, with less being sent to support the mainland armies and the bulk being retained in defense of the home islands.

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

... They were planning on mopping Japanese holdings in Southern China and take back the Yellow river. How would the Second Sino Japanese war go if Japan didn't surrender after the atomic bombs? ...

My take is there were two somewhat contradictory political/military goals for the KMT. One was to demonstrate their strength by a successful series of offensives and taking important territory from the Japanese. Another was to preserve military strength for defeating the remaining Communist group. If the KMT is to pursue the second goal, then there may be limits on the effort it can make to reach the other goal.

Separately there is the Japanese ability to defeat a Chinese offensive. This scenario does not exclude the effect of the defense of Manchuria. So Japan must divert resources to defeat the Red Army enclaves in Korea, and more important defend the new northern front.

Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?

[Carl Schwamberger]

If theres no cargo ships to deliver rice theres certainly not enough capacity for delivering soldiers, fuel, or much else needed to defend the Home Islands.

I was thinking of it going in the opposite direction, with less being sent to support the mainland armies and the bulk being retained in defense of the home islands.

Wasn't much of anything going the other direction. Prewar Japan had Eleven million GRT of cargo shipping servicing its economic & military needs. 40% of that was Japanese flagged. A emergency program was initiated to drastically increase the Japanese owned cargo fleet to 80%+ of needs by 1946. This had some success with Four million plus GRT built into 1944. Unfortunately Allied airpower sank some Three million GRT 1942-1944 & the submarines sank the rest. In 1945 Japan could count slightly over One million GRT of cargo ships still flying the rising sun flag. Most of that was surviving by being used in out of the way places the Allies were not hunting in. As in the S Pacific the IJN had resorted to using high speed war ships to bring rice from Asian ports to Japan. They also tried contracting 'neutral' Soviet cargo ships, but there was not much increase of requirements under previous agreements. And US submarines had a habit of not seeing the Soviet flags and torpedoing their cargo ships.

Assorted sources place the caloric ration or goals of the rationing system of 1945 as: 2000 for soldiers, 1500 for industrial laborers, 1000 for persons under age 18, & 600 for the elderly & infirm. The projected allocations for 1946 did not include a allowance for PoW, convicts, & some other classes, lending credence to the claim they were to be eliminated.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?

Taking the long view, of decades, yes & certainly.

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?

Taking the long view, of decades, yes & certainly.

What do you mean decades?