paulrward wrote: ↑
08 Jun 2020 21:05
Hello All :
Mr. Glenn239 stated :
I don't see how the war is shortened if Japan succeeds in taking Hawaii. The fall of
Hawaii will lengthen the war. The question is, what good does that do for Japan, having a
longer war in which defeat is still inevitable? If to lose, then best done quickly.
Perhaps another viewpoint: What if, following a successful occupation of Hawaii, and
the subsequent occupations of the Midway, Wake, Guam, the NEI, Malaya, and the Philippines,
and a couple of nasty defeats of the USN as it fights to hold or regain Hawaii, the citizens
of the United States look at the board and say, " No Mas ! "
If the Japanese take Hawaii early on, and have the time to base some long range flying
boat squadrons there, along with a few squadrons of twin engine bombers and a couple of
hundred A6Ms, you would have a very tough air complement to crack in 1942.
Add to this the ability to move some of their submarine tenders into Pearl Harbor and Midway,
and putting a few squadrons of long range submarines into patrols around the Hawaiian chain,
and the waters become very dangerous for the USN ( Remember Saratoga, Yorktown,
North Carolina, Wasp, and Indianapolis- all damaged or sunk by IJN submarine torpedoes )
You might have a ' Fortress Hawaii ' situation that the United States is unable to reduce
before the beginning of 1944. And, if the USN, goaded by Roosevelt, attempts a counter
attack with all of the USN's available carrier strength in 1942 ( that would be five CVAs,
two CVLs, and four or six CVEs ) they would be facing an IJN force of as many as eight CVAs,
four CVLs, and two CVEs, along with the Chitose, Chiyoda, and Nishin, which could be used for
scouting with their floatplanes.
A battle at these odds would be essentially a toss-up. Meaning that it might be possible that
the IJN, after winning against the USN in a major fleet action in the summer of 1942, would
be in a very strong position to continue to fortify Hawaii while consolodating their gains in Asia.
At the same time, the United States citizens, faced with defeat after defeat, and having lost the
major part of their navy, might be in less of a mood to continue the war. After all, at this point,
the Atomic Bomb is still a ( top secret ) dream, the B-29s have no place to fly from, and the USN's
submarines are now sortieing from San Diego and Alaska, and are still making fruitless attacks with
If the Japanese, at this point, ( late 1942 ) proposed a peace settlement, with all PoWs returned,
the Philippines evacuated by Japan, Hawaii returned as a de-militirized territory, and talks to begin
a re-establishing trade, a portion of the American Public might want to go along with it, rather
than continue to fight a long, bloody, and possibly unsuccessful War in the Pacific.
If the Japanese were willing to send a group of Peace Envoys to negotiate the settlement in the
White House, it might shorten the war, but in Japan's favor.
Just a thought
Paul R. Ward