German "East First" Plan in 1914?

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glenn239
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 20 Sep 2019 17:20

ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 05:15

Mobilization is not war .
France remained neutral when Germany attacked Russia .
You said that France would remain neutral while Germany took 1-3 years to crush Russia. I don't think so. I think that if France did this, Russia would denounce the alliance with France and request to join the Central Powers.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 20 Sep 2019 17:37

JAG13 wrote:
19 Sep 2019 20:36
3rd Balkan war! Or 4th? Italy and Turkey attack Greece...
3rd Balkans War I think, and a better one for Austria than the real 3rd Balkans War.
True, but would a KM trouncing of a suicidal MN be enough to cause the UK to enter the war?
The idea being that the HSF sorties into the North Sea, the Grand Fleet will sortie too.
They cant, as you pointed out the British (AND FRENCH!) had to undertake a series of bloody offensives in 1915 to alleviate German pressure on Russia, they cant simply dig-in and sit-in.
The Russians could exchange ground for time, perhaps until the end of 1915.
I cant see Nicky changing sides, too inflexible and unimaginative, he will go down with the Entente as IRL,the French however would be VERY concerned by the strident RUssian demands for action and would NEED to attack the Germans to show the Russians.
Possibly.
Good point, then how does the UK get in if the cabinet is free of the interventionists?
Jellicoe pulls up with the Grand Fleet and opens fire on the HSF squadrons pursuing the French across the North Sea.
I would need you to expand on that, I dont see it.
Can't see it, or won't see it?

France invades Belgium. Germany counterattacks into Belgium. Now, all of Belgium is a war zone some months into the wr. How does Britain get the war out of Belgium? Neither combatant will withdraw because the other will gain the advantage. So, they can either enter the war, or they can wait until the war is over and then ask the victors, (ie, the Germans) politely if they will leave Belgium on their own accord. The Germans will no doubt reply that the Belgians themselves have asked to join the Central Powers alliance on account of the French aggression, so the British request is impossible by that fact. The British will ask the Belgian king and politicians if this is so and they, surrounded by about 100,000 of their heavily armed German friends, will nod and say yes, they wish to join the Central Powers in alliance. The British will say to Brussels, but wait, you have the 1839 Treaty in which you are to be neutral and the Belgians will say, what treaty? The one you British yourselves denounced by remaining neutral while Belgium became a war zone?

So, waiting for the end of the war will not work. Therefore, they must enter the war. The war in which they will never be against France or for Germany. So a French invasion of Belgium will cause a British entry into the war against Germany. What other choice would the British have? Let the entire Benelux go CP?

French submission to German leadership in Europe might go a long way to greasing a peace deal.

That wont happen without a lot of bloodshed.
You might be right that France will fight for a year or two. But I still think that French bitterness towards Britain would be generational, that the anger would be so widespread that France would likely as not wind up denouncing the Entente with Britain and making an alliance with Germany.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 20 Sep 2019 18:13

Germany did NOT declare war on France,because France refused to be neutral : look at the German DOW on France . Thus there was no reason to declare war on France .
There was also no reason to declare war on Russia,because the Russian mobilisation did not threaten Germany : most of the Russian forces were stationed at the border with AH, and AH did not protest against the Russian mobilisation, AH was not whining in Berlin ,saying : Russia is threatening us, help us . Thus .if the Russian mobilisation was no danger for AH, it was also no danger for Germany , and if AH did not declare war on Russia on August 1, there was no reason for Germany to declare war on Russia on August 1 .
The reason for the German DOW on Russia and on France is obvious : since 10 years Germany was looking for an occasion to start a war against France, because France was the obstacle to the German dream of domination of Europe . Only France . Russia was an underdevelopped country and without continental allies,Britain would be powerless .
The 18th century was the century of French domination, the 19th century of the domination of Britain, the ruling groups in Germany wanted to make the 20th century the century of Germany . The slogan was : am deutschen wesen soll die Welt genesen . ( the Kaiser on August 1 1907 ) . Germany had as mission to impose its culture and political system/ideas on the rest of the world .
Nothing new under the sun .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 20 Sep 2019 18:19

glenn239 wrote:
20 Sep 2019 17:20
ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 05:15

Mobilization is not war .
France remained neutral when Germany attacked Russia .
You said that France would remain neutral while Germany took 1-3 years to crush Russia. I don't think so. I think that if France did this, Russia would denounce the alliance with France and request to join the Central Powers.
I did NOT say that France would remain neutral while Germany took 1-3 years to crush Russia : I said ( and this is a fact ) that France remained neutral when Germany attacked Russia .
But it is more than likely that France would remain neutral even if the war between Russia and Germany would last several years, as for the French the aim of the alliance with Russia was that Russia would fight for France, not that France would fight for Russia .Besides ,such a long war would be very good for France : if Germany won, it would be that exhausted that it would cease to be a danger for France .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by JAG13 » 20 Sep 2019 19:07

glenn239 wrote:
20 Sep 2019 17:37

The idea being that the HSF sorties into the North Sea, the Grand Fleet will sortie too.


Under whose orders? Grey managed to drag the cabinet to war on Belgium, how does he do it without it?
Good point, then how does the UK get in if the cabinet is free of the interventionists?
Jellicoe pulls up with the Grand Fleet and opens fire on the HSF squadrons pursuing the French across the North Sea.
Without a warning? Without a political ultimatum? And what cabinet is going to allow THAT!
I would need you to expand on that, I dont see it.
Can't see it, or won't see it?
Cant!
France invades Belgium. Germany counterattacks into Belgium. Now, all of Belgium is a war zone some months into the wr. How does Britain get the war out of Belgium? Neither combatant will withdraw because the other will gain the advantage. So, they can either enter the war, or they can wait until the war is over and then ask the victors, (ie, the Germans) politely if they will leave Belgium on their own accord. The Germans will no doubt reply that the Belgians themselves have asked to join the Central Powers alliance on account of the French aggression, so the British request is impossible by that fact. The British will ask the Belgian king and politicians if this is so and they, surrounded by about 100,000 of their heavily armed German friends, will nod and say yes, they wish to join the Central Powers in alliance. The British will say to Brussels, but wait, you have the 1839 Treaty in which you are to be neutral and the Belgians will say, what treaty? The one you British yourselves denounced by remaining neutral while Belgium became a war zone?
As you know, Britain didnt care about Belgium, they cared about the Germans invading it, didnt care if the French did.

Now, if France invades Belgium, the BELGIANS are going to scream bloody murder and demand assistance... from the other signatories of the treaty, Garmany and Britain, Britain might abstain, they cant really pull an 1984 and join the side publicly in the wrong, not with the Belgians talking.

No need to join an old alliance treaty, Germany would be there in fulfillment of the 1839 treaty, no more.

Besides, the UK would be busy explaining why it is not at war with France over the same...
So, waiting for the end of the war will not work. Therefore, they must enter the war. The war in which they will never be against France or for Germany. So a French invasion of Belgium will cause a British entry into the war against Germany. What other choice would the British have? Let the entire Benelux go CP?
If they are scrubbing the treaty, they cant use the treaty to join the wrong side either... specially with the tales of the horrible carnage on the newspapers, no one would want to join THAT on flimsy pretexts once the price is known.

Specially with some of the interventionists gone.

You might be right that France will fight for a year or two. But I still think that French bitterness towards Britain would be generational, that the anger would be so widespread that France would likely as not wind up denouncing the Entente with Britain and making an alliance with Germany.
Oh, they will hate them to bits...

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by JAG13 » 20 Sep 2019 19:13

ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 18:13
Germany did NOT declare war on France,because France refused to be neutral : look at the German DOW on France . Thus there was no reason to declare war on France .
Did the Germans have the French refusal to be neutral in writing?

No.

So they made up some crap... still declared war because France was clearly a belligerent.
There was also no reason to declare war on Russia,because the Russian mobilisation did not threaten Germany : most of the Russian forces were stationed at the border with AH, and AH did not protest against the Russian mobilisation, AH was not whining in Berlin ,saying : Russia is threatening us, help us . Thus .if the Russian mobilisation was no danger for AH, it was also no danger for Germany , and if AH did not declare war on Russia on August 1, there was no reason for Germany to declare war on Russia on August 1 .
AH was not aware of the SECRET mobilization against Germany, one thing is an open partial mobilization, and a FULL SECRET ONE is a completely different beast, you only do that in the hope of surprising an enemy on war.

Hence the warnings, ultimatum and war.
The reason for the German DOW on Russia and on France is obvious : since 10 years Germany was looking for an occasion to start a war against France, because France was the obstacle to the German dream of domination of Europe . Only France . Russia was an underdevelopped country and without continental allies,Britain would be powerless .
No, that is GI Joe stuff.

Had Germany wanted war they would have built up their army instead of constantly falling behind in numbers and in % of public spending and GNP.

With a really militaristic Germany there would have been no war.
The 18th century was the century of French domination, the 19th century of the domination of Britain, the ruling groups in Germany wanted to make the 20th century the century of Germany . The slogan was : am deutschen wesen soll die Welt genesen . ( the Kaiser on August 1 1907 ) . Germany had as mission to impose its culture and political system/ideas on the rest of the world .
Nothing new under the sun .
Kaiser like to talk, insecure people often do, he always backed down after cooling off.

SAme old propaganda.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 20 Sep 2019 19:42

The Kaiser said what the others were thinking .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 20 Sep 2019 19:52

JAG13 wrote:
20 Sep 2019 19:13
ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 18:13
Germany did NOT declare war on France,because France refused to be neutral : look at the German DOW on France . Thus there was no reason to declare war on France .
Did the Germans have the French refusal to be neutral in writing?

No.

So they made up some crap... still declared war because France was clearly a belligerent.
There was also no reason to declare war on Russia,because the Russian mobilisation did not threaten Germany : most of the Russian forces were stationed at the border with AH, and AH did not protest against the Russian mobilisation, AH was not whining in Berlin ,saying : Russia is threatening us, help us . Thus .if the Russian mobilisation was no danger for AH, it was also no danger for Germany , and if AH did not declare war on Russia on August 1, there was no reason for Germany to declare war on Russia on August 1 .
AH was not aware of the SECRET mobilization against Germany, one thing is an open partial mobilization, and a FULL SECRET ONE is a completely different beast, you only do that in the hope of surprising an enemy on war.

Hence the warnings, ultimatum and war.
The reason for the German DOW on Russia and on France is obvious : since 10 years Germany was looking for an occasion to start a war against France, because France was the obstacle to the German dream of domination of Europe . Only France . Russia was an underdevelopped country and without continental allies,Britain would be powerless .
No, that is GI Joe stuff.

Had Germany wanted war they would have built up their army instead of constantly falling behind in numbers and in % of public spending and GNP.

With a really militaristic Germany there would have been no war.
The 18th century was the century of French domination, the 19th century of the domination of Britain, the ruling groups in Germany wanted to make the 20th century the century of Germany . The slogan was : am deutschen wesen soll die Welt genesen . ( the Kaiser on August 1 1907 ) . Germany had as mission to impose its culture and political system/ideas on the rest of the world .
Nothing new under the sun .
Kaiser like to talk, insecure people often do, he always backed down after cooling off.

SAme old propaganda.
France became a belligerent when Germany attacked her . France would never fight for Russia .
AH knew of the Russian mobilisation on its border and was not impressed .The Russian mobilisation on the German border was technically inevitable ,as the Military district of Warsaw was spreading on the Austrian and German border, and this mobilisation was not secret, as the Germans knew about it .
The German army was strong enough for the war in the West,which it was assumed would last only a few weeks . Besides, Germany had not the means for a stronger peace army ,as the Reichstag refused additional money, unless the Junker government would tax even more the Junkers .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by JAG13 » 20 Sep 2019 23:25

ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 19:52

France became a belligerent when Germany attacked her . France would never fight for Russia .
Not what the French and their treaty said at the time.
AH knew of the Russian mobilisation on its border and was not impressed .The Russian mobilisation on the German border was technically inevitable ,as the Military district of Warsaw was spreading on the Austrian and German border, and this mobilisation was not secret, as the Germans knew about it .
Was not inevitable since partial mobilization excluded the Warsaw district initially, until the secret mobilization.
The German army was strong enough for the war in the West,which it was assumed would last only a few weeks . Besides, Germany had not the means for a stronger peace army ,as the Reichstag refused additional money, unless the Junker government would tax even more the Junkers .
Meaningless, Germany was facing a 2 front conflict hypothesis and needed a 2 front army.

Had Germany been militaristic political considerations would have been secondary, 30 more divisions and the entente would have never dared to start e war.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 21 Sep 2019 07:27

The Entente (=France and Russia ) did not start the war ,Germany started the war by its DOW on Russia and France .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 21 Sep 2019 14:18

ljadw wrote:
20 Sep 2019 18:19
I did NOT say that France would remain neutral while Germany took 1-3 years to crush Russia : I said ( and this is a fact ) that France remained neutral when Germany attacked Russia .

But it is more than likely that France would remain neutral even if the war between Russia and Germany would last several years, as for the French the aim of the alliance with Russia was that Russia would fight for France, not that France would fight for Russia .Besides ,such a long war would be very good for France : if Germany won, it would be that exhausted that it would cease to be a danger for France .
So yes, you do say that France would remain neutral as Germany crushed Russia, taking 1-3 years and as I just said, in response to this act, the Russians would no doubt denounce their alliance with France. If the Germans accepted the Russian peace feelers that will follow shortly after the French decision, then one of the conditions would be that Russia would join the Central Powers. If France plays her cards well, she may replay the 1814 campaign with the Prussians and the Russians invading from the east!

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 21 Sep 2019 14:23

ljadw wrote:
21 Sep 2019 07:27
The Entente (=France and Russia ) did not start the war ,Germany started the war by its DOW on Russia and France .
Who started the war is complete immaterial to the consequences to France for the course that you suggest. If Germany and Russia are at war, and France declares its neutrality, the Russians WILL switch sides. The Germans will not thank the French for their cowardice. On the contrary, they will conclude that the French are arrogant, argumentative, and weak. The French have not prevented a war with Germany by betraying Russia, they simply have assured that they will lose it should Germany decide to start it.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 21 Sep 2019 14:42

JAG13 wrote:
20 Sep 2019 19:07
Jellicoe pulls up with the Grand Fleet and opens fire on the HSF squadrons pursuing the French across the North Sea.

Without a warning? Without a political ultimatum? And what cabinet is going to allow THAT!
Cabinet? Cabinet is not on the bridge of the Iron Duke. Cabinet is sitting in London, far away monitoring events as reports are received. Jellicoe is in the North Sea, with the fleet upon which the fate of the British Empire rides, and would have absolute power to open fire or not. That is why the French would think to meddle in the North Sea in the first place. And, if a naval battle came about, Jellicoe would smash the German fleet and the British nation would erupt in triumph.

As you know, Britain didnt care about Belgium, they cared about the Germans invading it, didnt care if the French did.
The British people and government most certainly did care about the independence and neutrality of Belgium, and they did not care for the German Kaiser, his fleet, or his militaristic Prussian army.
Now, if France invades Belgium, the BELGIANS are going to scream bloody murder and demand assistance... from the other signatories of the treaty, Germany and Britain, Britain might abstain, they cant really pull an 1984 and join the side publicly in the wrong, not with the Belgians talking.
The French invade Belgium and then the Germans counter attack. Belgium is a war zone and Britain has to make a choice; either enter the war against Germany, or see the Benelux go CP after France surrenders. The idea of Britain going to war with France would be absurd - the French would immediately seek an armistice in Berlin and Germany would come away with all of the Benelux in its orbit, and be free to resolve matters in the east to its liking.

So, the logic is as cold and hard as iron; if France invades Belgium, Britain either must accept German hegemony in Europe, or go to war with Germany. Think of it this way. Hitler did not want to go to war with Greece in 1940. But, the Italian invasion of Greece forced him to. Britain would be in the same position. You are underestimating the power of the weak (France) to force the hand of the strong (Britain) by way of the ultimate threat the weak have always had; to collapse if not supported.
Last edited by glenn239 on 21 Sep 2019 14:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 21 Sep 2019 14:45

glenn239 wrote:
21 Sep 2019 14:23
ljadw wrote:
21 Sep 2019 07:27
The Entente (=France and Russia ) did not start the war ,Germany started the war by its DOW on Russia and France .
Who started the war is complete immaterial to the consequences to France for the course that you suggest. If Germany and Russia are at war, and France declares its neutrality, the Russians WILL switch sides. The Germans will not thank the French for their cowardice. On the contrary, they will conclude that the French are arrogant, argumentative, and weak. The French have not prevented a war with Germany by betraying Russia, they simply have assured that they will lose it should Germany decide to start it.
That is totally wrong .
War between Russia and Germany with France remaining neutral would be very good for France : countless Germans would be killed,countless Germans would remain tied in the east, Germany would be broken and the rule of the Junkers would be over . France would be safe .
What could France want more ?

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by glenn239 » 21 Sep 2019 14:50

ljadw wrote:
21 Sep 2019 14:45
That is totally wrong .
War between Russia and Germany with France remaining neutral would be very good for France : countless Germans would be killed,countless Germans would remain tied in the east, Germany would be broken and the rule of the Junkers would be over . France would be safe .
What could France want more ?
The Russians in 1914 were not stupid, nor believed the French were their masters. If France betrayed the alliance they were requesting that Russia joins the Central Powers, and the Russians, not being suicidal, would no doubt oblige them.

Your argument really resides on the idea that the Germans would accept French neutrality for a war in the east, sort of like Hitler's pipe dream. If they do not, Russia joins the Central Powers and France will lose any war that then breaks out. If they do, the Russian Empire will be broken up and France will lose any war that breaks out afterwards. Boiled down to its basic elements, your argument is that France would ally with Germany if given the chance. There is no evidence for this conclusion.

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