German "East First" Plan in 1914?

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Peter89
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Peter89 » 13 Jul 2020 09:42

Futurist wrote:
13 Jul 2020 02:15
Thanks for this link! Anyway, you mean "content" rather than "contempt", correct? I'm talking about this sentence: "Most likely he was contempt with the status quo, and wanted to live the life of a prince. He was highly educated, well-married, served his time at the Army properly."

Also, for what it's worth, even if Franz Ferdinand would have lived, Karl would have still become the heir to the Austro-Hungarian thrones once FF would have become King and Emperor of Austria and Hungary, respectively. After all, Franz Ferdinand's own children were excluded from the succession due to FF's morganatic marriage, and FF explicitly stated in one of his letters that he did NOT intend to change this after he would have come to the throne:

https://archive.org/details/sarajevothe ... p?q=thorns

Maybe this was just FF being humble and/or dishonest, but still, I'm inclined to take FF at his word in regards to this. So, with or without FF's assassination, if Karl will manage to outlive FF in this scenario, Karl should still eventually become the ruler of Austria-Hungary--specifically after FF's death.
No, I meant contempt. He knew that some reforms (= federalization, trialism, etc.) have to begin, but he also took no real interest in such matters; so it would be probably someone else's decision. The royalty of the A-H Empire were not always the most influental decision makers in the Empire.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Futurist » 13 Jul 2020 19:10

Gotcha; understood!

History Learner
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by History Learner » 16 Jul 2020 10:04

Peter89 wrote:
13 Jul 2020 00:54
Because you said that the Galicia disaster and the Serbian fiasco were avoidable. No, they were not. Disproportionate losses were granted even before the war started.
They are and to say they are baked in is to leave out the wider context of the scenario, which is that large numbers of German formations will be, in the ATL advancing on the Vistula in August/September. The Russian Army in such a situation would be compelled to withdraw from Galicia, as it was during the Great Retreat, lest it be encircled itself. Without the need to relieve Galicia, that frees up 100,000 Austro-Hungarians for action at a time when Serbia was already considering peace.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by History Learner » 16 Jul 2020 10:06

Futurist wrote:
12 Jul 2020 20:52
Anyway, what do you expect the final peace terms on all fronts for this World War I to be?
France loses Briey-Longwy, forever neutering it as a Great Power, while Russia is probably compelled to surrender Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland. Austria-Hungary is able to enforce its demands on Serbia while the Ottomans, if they still enter in time, might get Kars back.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Futurist » 16 Jul 2020 16:57

History Learner wrote:
16 Jul 2020 10:06
Futurist wrote:
12 Jul 2020 20:52
Anyway, what do you expect the final peace terms on all fronts for this World War I to be?
France loses Briey-Longwy, forever neutering it as a Great Power, while Russia is probably compelled to surrender Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland. Austria-Hungary is able to enforce its demands on Serbia while the Ottomans, if they still enter in time, might get Kars back.
Does France also lose Nancy? In addition, does Romania get Bessarabia if it enters the war on the CP side? In addition, does Austria-Hungary acquire any territory at Russia's expense (such as Volhynia, western Podolia, et cetera)? Finally, does Russia get to keep Riga, Livonia, Estonia, Finland, Ukraine, and Belarus?

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Futurist » 16 Jul 2020 22:48

Also, does Poland acquire nominal independence or does it get outright partitioned between Germany and Austria-Hungary, with Germany getting northern and western Poland while Austria-Hungary gets southern Poland?

ljadw
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 17 Jul 2020 20:07

Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Futurist » 17 Jul 2020 22:05

ljadw wrote:
17 Jul 2020 20:07
Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
Not if it's a German puppet state.
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .
Well, Prussia was able to swallow much more Poles back in the 1790s, though back then nationalism was not as big of a thing as it was in the 1910s.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 18 Jul 2020 06:33

Futurist wrote:
17 Jul 2020 22:05
ljadw wrote:
17 Jul 2020 20:07
Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
Not if it's a German puppet state.
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .
Well, Prussia was able to swallow much more Poles back in the 1790s, though back then nationalism was not as big of a thing as it was in the 1910s.
You should look at the Ostflucht numbers : BEFORE 1914 2,3 million people were leaving the Prussian eastern provinces,while only 300000 were migrating to the east .Due to the mass immigration from out the Russian Empire, the population of East Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia,Posen, West Prussia was stagnating ,otherwise the situation would be catastrophic.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by Futurist » 18 Jul 2020 20:37

ljadw wrote:
18 Jul 2020 06:33
Futurist wrote:
17 Jul 2020 22:05
ljadw wrote:
17 Jul 2020 20:07
Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
Not if it's a German puppet state.
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .
Well, Prussia was able to swallow much more Poles back in the 1790s, though back then nationalism was not as big of a thing as it was in the 1910s.
You should look at the Ostflucht numbers : BEFORE 1914 2,3 million people were leaving the Prussian eastern provinces,while only 300000 were migrating to the east .Due to the mass immigration from out the Russian Empire, the population of East Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia,Posen, West Prussia was stagnating ,otherwise the situation would be catastrophic.
What exactly is the problem with chronic population decline in the German east, though? I mean, as long as Germany was strong, Germany was perfectly capable of using military force to prevent these regions from seceding.

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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 19 Jul 2020 08:16

Futurist wrote:
18 Jul 2020 20:37
ljadw wrote:
18 Jul 2020 06:33
Futurist wrote:
17 Jul 2020 22:05
ljadw wrote:
17 Jul 2020 20:07
Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
Not if it's a German puppet state.
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .
Well, Prussia was able to swallow much more Poles back in the 1790s, though back then nationalism was not as big of a thing as it was in the 1910s.
You should look at the Ostflucht numbers : BEFORE 1914 2,3 million people were leaving the Prussian eastern provinces,while only 300000 were migrating to the east .Due to the mass immigration from out the Russian Empire, the population of East Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia,Posen, West Prussia was stagnating ,otherwise the situation would be catastrophic.
What exactly is the problem with chronic population decline in the German east, though? I mean, as long as Germany was strong, Germany was perfectly capable of using military force to prevent these regions from seceding.
1 ''As long as Germany was strong ": how long ?
2 It was very unlikely that this Polish state would be a puppet of Germany : in 1914 the population of Russian Poland was 13,3 million of whom 10 million Poles and 3,3 million Jews, Germans, Ukrainians and Lithuanians .
3 There is not much imagination needed to know the effect of the existence of a Polish state on East Prussia where 15 % of the population of 2 million was non German, mostly Polish .
4 And what about Austrian Poland ?
5 What about the Polish minority in eastern Germany ?
6 If you give the Poles their own state, why not the Czechs?
7 What was better for Germany :
the Tsar in Warsaw or Dmowski or Pilsudski ?
8 What would be the benefit for Germany of the existence of a (puppet ) Polish state ?

History Learner
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by History Learner » 21 Jul 2020 08:44

ljadw wrote:
19 Jul 2020 08:16
Futurist wrote:
18 Jul 2020 20:37
ljadw wrote:
18 Jul 2020 06:33
Futurist wrote:
17 Jul 2020 22:05
ljadw wrote:
17 Jul 2020 20:07
Neither of both .
An independent Poland would want to recapture the territories it had lost to Prussia at the end of the 18th century .
Not if it's a German puppet state.
And no one in Germany wanted a new partition of Poland : Prussia had already too many Poles,it was losing the demographic battle :the Germans were leaving the territories east of the Elbe, already before 1914 and the Poles had more children: thus why should Prussia incorporate even more Poles ?
To colonize parts of Russian Poland, Prussia needed colonists and..these did not exist .
Well, Prussia was able to swallow much more Poles back in the 1790s, though back then nationalism was not as big of a thing as it was in the 1910s.
You should look at the Ostflucht numbers : BEFORE 1914 2,3 million people were leaving the Prussian eastern provinces,while only 300000 were migrating to the east .Due to the mass immigration from out the Russian Empire, the population of East Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia,Posen, West Prussia was stagnating ,otherwise the situation would be catastrophic.
What exactly is the problem with chronic population decline in the German east, though? I mean, as long as Germany was strong, Germany was perfectly capable of using military force to prevent these regions from seceding.
1 ''As long as Germany was strong ": how long ?
2 It was very unlikely that this Polish state would be a puppet of Germany : in 1914 the population of Russian Poland was 13,3 million of whom 10 million Poles and 3,3 million Jews, Germans, Ukrainians and Lithuanians .
3 There is not much imagination needed to know the effect of the existence of a Polish state on East Prussia where 15 % of the population of 2 million was non German, mostly Polish .
4 And what about Austrian Poland ?
5 What about the Polish minority in eastern Germany ?
6 If you give the Poles their own state, why not the Czechs?
7 What was better for Germany :
the Tsar in Warsaw or Dmowski or Pilsudski ?
8 What would be the benefit for Germany of the existence of a (puppet ) Polish state ?
One wonders how Vichy France, Fascist Italy and the like were all German puppets then, given they had populations far in excess of 10 million. More particularly, I fail to see any real danger of the Polish minority in Prussia; the Masurian and Silesia Poles, for example, decisively voted in favor of remaining with Germany, after all.

ljadw
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 21 Jul 2020 10:35

If Vichy France was a German puppet, why was Germany invading this puppet in November 1942?
If Italy was a German puppet, why did it refuse to declare war on Britain and France in September 1939 ?
If the Polish minority in Prussia was no danger, why did Germany need a policy of Germanisation and why was Germany planning during WWI to expell 3 millions of Poles from Congress Poland ?

ljadw
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by ljadw » 21 Jul 2020 11:05

Almost all minorities and even majorities were considered as Reichsfeinde :
Lithuanians and Poles in Prussia (also the Ruhrpolen)
Germans and Ukrainians in Poland
Croatians in Yugoslavia
Germans and Slovaks in CZ
Germans in Italy
Irish in the UK
Basks in Spain
Flemish people ( the majority ) in Belgium
Romanians in Hungary
Etc,etc.

History Learner
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Re: German "East First" Plan in 1914?

Post by History Learner » 27 Jul 2020 12:19

ljadw wrote:
21 Jul 2020 10:35
If Vichy France was a German puppet, why was Germany invading this puppet in November 1942?
As a preventive measure, given the Anglo-Americans were overrunning it via Operation Torch. Given no Vichy units resisted Operation Anton, that should be telling.
If Italy was a German puppet, why did it refuse to declare war on Britain and France in September 1939 ?
Did it not later on in 1940 and then contribute forces to Russia?
If the Polish minority in Prussia was no danger, why did Germany need a policy of Germanisation and why was Germany planning during WWI to expell 3 millions of Poles from Congress Poland ?
Disingenuous comparison, given the Germans didn't control Congress Poland until World War I. If the Poles were not a threat to Russia, why did Russia do a Russification? Numerous examples of this abound and needs to be placed in the context of seeking to assimilate minorities being a common aim of governments in the Western World at this time; see Teddy Roosevelt's statement on hypenated Americans, for one outside Europe.

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