Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

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Aida1
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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by Aida1 » 31 Dec 2019 09:50

ljadw wrote:
31 Dec 2019 08:13
The Manstein proposals were only a rough draft : Manstein left even open the possibility of a double envelopment : one group going to the Channel ,the other group going to the Swiss border (as in 1914 ) . The success of such a double envelopment was very questionable .
Meanwhile the OKH was working on an other Aufmarschanweisung,the evolution of which started already before anyone knew of the Manstein proposals .
1st Aufmarschanweisung with Schwerpunkt right : 19 October 1939 6 PzD would operate north of the Meuse .
2nd Aufmarschanweisung : 29 October : 2 Schwerpunkte 5 PzD north of the Meuse with direction Gent and Antwerp. 4 PzD crossing the Meuse,direction Charleroi
3th Aufmarschanweisung :30 January :3 Schwerpunkte North of the Meuse 3 PzD , crossing the Meuse 3 PzD ,in the Ardennes 2 PzD
4th Aufmarschanweisung : 24 February : 2 PzD north of the Meuse,2 PzD between the Meuse and the Ardennes, 5 PzD through the Ardennes .
The Evolution is very clear .
Source : maps from the Blitzkrieg Legend .
The documents were captured on January 10 .. and there was no influence on the planning of Fall Gelb :going from 2 to 3 Schwerpunkte is not the adoption of the Manstein proposals .
That is your biased anti-Manstein version of history. Actually, Manstein was more bolder than the modified version. The basic idea is his.

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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by ljadw » 31 Dec 2019 12:49

Frieser is not anti Manstein, thus, as usual, you have no point .

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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by Aida1 » 31 Dec 2019 16:11

ljadw wrote:
31 Dec 2019 12:49
Frieser is not anti Manstein, thus, as usual, you have no point .
Given your anti -Manstein bias, it is certainly possible you are misinterpreting Frieser. I am not going to buy the book just to verify. Melvin Mungo contradicts you in his biography of Manstein and many other books do the same. You cannot be unaware of that.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by History Learner » 05 Jan 2020 03:19

Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019 04:48
Why did Italy fail to accomplish this in 1940 in real life and what would be different in 1938-1939 here in regards to this?
Britain had only two deployable infantry divisions in 1938 and had yet to switch to mobilization; this was not the case in 1940 when the Italians entered. Likewise, the Italian Army was far more modern in 1938 than it would later be during the OTL war.
Frankly, I suspect that if France has already fallen, then Poland would prefer to form an alliance with Hitler as opposed to going on their own and subsequently getting invaded by the Nazis. On the flip side, though, Yugoslavia had a pro-British coup in 1941--after the Fall of France--and thus got invaded by the Nazis. One would think that the Fall of France in the previous year would have made the Yugoslav military extremely cautious in regards to pissing off the Nazis (and Yugoslav Regent Prince Paul was indeed cautious, but his cautiousness resulted in him getting overthrown), but apparently the Yugoslav military believed that it was better to go down fighting with honor than to make deals with the devil. So, theoretically speaking, it's probably not a complete impossibility for Poland to behave in a similar way if/after France falls in this scenario.
I think it either way it could work out good for Berlin.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2020 05:46

History Learner wrote:
05 Jan 2020 03:19
Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019 04:48
Why did Italy fail to accomplish this in 1940 in real life and what would be different in 1938-1939 here in regards to this?
Britain had only two deployable infantry divisions in 1938 and had yet to switch to mobilization; this was not the case in 1940 when the Italians entered. Likewise, the Italian Army was far more modern in 1938 than it would later be during the OTL war.
Interesting. That said, though, could the Italians actually convert the modernity of their army into a powerful fighting force? I mean, an army could have good technology and be led by poor generals and/or have poor morale.
Frankly, I suspect that if France has already fallen, then Poland would prefer to form an alliance with Hitler as opposed to going on their own and subsequently getting invaded by the Nazis. On the flip side, though, Yugoslavia had a pro-British coup in 1941--after the Fall of France--and thus got invaded by the Nazis. One would think that the Fall of France in the previous year would have made the Yugoslav military extremely cautious in regards to pissing off the Nazis (and Yugoslav Regent Prince Paul was indeed cautious, but his cautiousness resulted in him getting overthrown), but apparently the Yugoslav military believed that it was better to go down fighting with honor than to make deals with the devil. So, theoretically speaking, it's probably not a complete impossibility for Poland to behave in a similar way if/after France falls in this scenario.
I think it either way it could work out good for Berlin.
Agreed--though if the Polish government voluntarily joins the German side, then the odds of Polish Jews being exterminated en masse probably goes down at least somewhat.

Also, if the Soviets manage to halt the Germano-Poles outside of Moscow and Leningrad, is there going to be a military coup in Germany so that Germany could sue for peace?

In addition, have you seen my link with the data in regards to the historical Russian Empire conscript literacy rate by year in another thread of mine?

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by History Learner » 06 Jan 2020 23:56

Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2020 05:46
Interesting. That said, though, could the Italians actually convert the modernity of their army into a powerful fighting force? I mean, an army could have good technology and be led by poor generals and/or have poor morale.
Probably they could, the correlation of forces is too in favor of them, they'd have local support and the Italian morale was fairly high even IOTL until their reversals.
Agreed--though if the Polish government voluntarily joins the German side, then the odds of Polish Jews being exterminated en masse probably goes down at least somewhat.

Also, if the Soviets manage to halt the Germano-Poles outside of Moscow and Leningrad, is there going to be a military coup in Germany so that Germany could sue for peace?

In addition, have you seen my link with the data in regards to the historical Russian Empire conscript literacy rate by year in another thread of mine?
I'd imagine they'd keep fighting if they're outside Moscow.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2020 23:57

History Learner wrote:
06 Jan 2020 23:56
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2020 05:46
Interesting. That said, though, could the Italians actually convert the modernity of their army into a powerful fighting force? I mean, an army could have good technology and be led by poor generals and/or have poor morale.
Probably they could, the correlation of forces is too in favor of them, they'd have local support and the Italian morale was fairly high even IOTL until their reversals.
They'd have local support where?
Agreed--though if the Polish government voluntarily joins the German side, then the odds of Polish Jews being exterminated en masse probably goes down at least somewhat.

Also, if the Soviets manage to halt the Germano-Poles outside of Moscow and Leningrad, is there going to be a military coup in Germany so that Germany could sue for peace?

In addition, have you seen my link with the data in regards to the historical Russian Empire conscript literacy rate by year in another thread of mine?
I'd imagine they'd keep fighting if they're outside Moscow.
What about if they can't take either Moscow or the Caucasus the next year either? Then what?

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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2020 23:58

Also, what about my last question here--in regards to my link with the data in regards to the historical Russian Empire conscript literacy rate by year in another thread of mine?

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020 00:00

Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2020 23:57
They'd have local support where?
Native Egyptians.
What about if they can't take either Moscow or the Caucasus the next year either? Then what?
So, basically, the OTL Eastern Front?

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020 00:01

History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:00
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2020 23:57
They'd have local support where?
Native Egyptians.
Oh.
What about if they can't take either Moscow or the Caucasus the next year either? Then what?
So, basically, the OTL Eastern Front?
Yeah, pretty much--though I am highly unsure if the Soviet Union would actually be able to push back the Axis all of the way west to Berlin without Western support.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020 00:05

Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:01
Yeah, pretty much--though I am highly unsure if the Soviet Union would actually be able to push back the Axis all of the way west to Berlin without Western support.
Assuming all else equal other than a lack of Lend Lease? The USSR would collapse in such a circumstance.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020 00:20

History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:05
Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:01
Yeah, pretty much--though I am highly unsure if the Soviet Union would actually be able to push back the Axis all of the way west to Berlin without Western support.
Assuming all else equal other than a lack of Lend Lease? The USSR would collapse in such a circumstance.
The USSR would suffer less during the initial Axis invasion in this scenario due to it being more prepared for the Axis invasion, though.

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Re: RE: Was A Successful Manstein Plan Possible If World War Two Breaks Out In 1938?

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020 00:23

Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:20
History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:05
Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020 00:01
Yeah, pretty much--though I am highly unsure if the Soviet Union would actually be able to push back the Axis all of the way west to Berlin without Western support.
Assuming all else equal other than a lack of Lend Lease? The USSR would collapse in such a circumstance.
The USSR would suffer less during the initial Axis invasion in this scenario due to it being more prepared for the Axis invasion, though.
Unlikely, the Soviets would still be in the state they were in OTL 1941 or possibly even worse, if the Germans are able to do an invasion in 1940.

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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020 00:32

True, but at least they are actually going to be able to see the Axis invasion coming when it did as opposed to being completely caught off-guard with their pants down, no?

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Re: Was a successful Manstein Plan possible if WWII breaks out in 1938?

Post by lahoda » 29 May 2020 14:44

Interesting scenario. I am surprised to see pretty much everyone here feels Czechoslovakia would be outrun by Germany in a matter of weeks (well that's possible, although I don't think it was very likely) and then magically redeploys the entire German army - without any casualties, just gaining experience to the western front and immediately defeat French army as well. This is totally unrealistc, beyond any doubt.
Germany was stronger numerically compared to Czechoslovak Army, but it was not that a big of the gap, and they lacked the 2 years of training that come handy in 1940 or even the one year for 1939 Polish campaign. What I would consider would be more telling about the German performance in war of 1938 was earlier occupation of Austria, which technically a success, proved to be a disaster from many reasons - tank (and transport in general) reliability, difficulties in coordination and communication etc. This was without any hostile activity. Germany was get rude awakening call had they really entered the war in 1938. Many of the armor officers (perhaps including Guderian himself) might find it was not that easy to get with tanks through the narrow, defended passages of the mountaineous terrain and would pay their life as a price for the lesson. My guess is Germany won't be able to finish off Czechoslovakia in 1938 and would collapse economically in 1939 (or perhaps Hitler is removed before that), and the hypothetical attack of France is completely out of picture.

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